Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for the UK unemployment rate averaging exactly 5.2% over November to January, anchored by Bank of England projections and Reuters economist polls forecasting precisely this level amid softening labor conditions. Recent ONS data showed the rate ticking up to 4.4% for September-November, with payrolled jobs growth decelerating to 0.1% monthly, redundancies surging 25%, and vacancies at 664,000—multi-year lows signaling persistent weakness despite Bank Rate cuts to 4.75%. This positioning holds firm absent surprises, though stronger-than-expected payrolls or upward wage revisions could shift odds toward ≤5.0%, a scenario traders price at just 0.1%. Next ONS release on February 18 may catalyze volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour5.2% 100.0%
≤5.0% <1%
5.1% <1%
5.3% <1%
$436 Vol.
$436 Vol.
Mar 19, 2026
≤5.0%
No
5.1%
No
5.2%
Yes
5.3%
No
5.4%
No
≥5.5%
No
5.2% 100.0%
≤5.0% <1%
5.1% <1%
5.3% <1%
$436 Vol.
$436 Vol.
Mar 19, 2026
≤5.0%
$436 Vol.
No
5.1%
$0 Vol.
No
5.2%
$0 Vol.
Yes
5.3%
$0 Vol.
No
5.4%
$0 Vol.
No
≥5.5%
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) for November 2025 to January 2026 reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the ‘Employment in the UK’ release for the specified period.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases
The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available ‘Employment in the UK’ release.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for the UK unemployment rate averaging exactly 5.2% over November to January, anchored by Bank of England projections and Reuters economist polls forecasting precisely this level amid softening labor conditions. Recent ONS data showed the rate ticking up to 4.4% for September-November, with payrolled jobs growth decelerating to 0.1% monthly, redundancies surging 25%, and vacancies at 664,000—multi-year lows signaling persistent weakness despite Bank Rate cuts to 4.75%. This positioning holds firm absent surprises, though stronger-than-expected payrolls or upward wage revisions could shift odds toward ≤5.0%, a scenario traders price at just 0.1%. Next ONS release on February 18 may catalyze volatility.
This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) for November 2025 to January 2026 reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the ‘Employment in the UK’ release for the specified period.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases
The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available ‘Employment in the UK’ release.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases
The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available ‘Employment in the UK’ release.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 17, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$436Date de fin
Mar 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) for November 2025 to January 2026 reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the ‘Employment in the UK’ release for the specified period.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases
The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available ‘Employment in the UK’ release.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for the UK unemployment rate averaging exactly 5.2% over November to January, anchored by Bank of England projections and Reuters economist polls forecasting precisely this level amid softening labor conditions. Recent ONS data showed the rate ticking up to 4.4% for September-November, with payrolled jobs growth decelerating to 0.1% monthly, redundancies surging 25%, and vacancies at 664,000—multi-year lows signaling persistent weakness despite Bank Rate cuts to 4.75%. This positioning holds firm absent surprises, though stronger-than-expected payrolls or upward wage revisions could shift odds toward ≤5.0%, a scenario traders price at just 0.1%. Next ONS release on February 18 may catalyze volatility.
This market will resolve according to the UK seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (aged 16+) for November 2025 to January 2026 reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the ‘Employment in the UK’ release for the specified period.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases
The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available ‘Employment in the UK’ release.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Employment in the UK' release, published by the ONS every month at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/previousreleases
The next data release is currently scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no relevant data for the specified period is released by the date the next period’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available ‘Employment in the UK’ release.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$436Date de fin
Mar 19, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 17, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged to a 100% implied probability for the UK unemployment rate averaging exactly 5.2% over November to January, anchored by Bank of England projections and Reuters economist polls forecasting precisely this level amid softening labor conditions. Recent ONS data showed the rate ticking up to 4.4% for September-November, with payrolled jobs growth decelerating to 0.1% monthly, redundancies surging 25%, and vacancies at 664,000—multi-year lows signaling persistent weakness despite Bank Rate cuts to 4.75%. This positioning holds firm absent surprises, though stronger-than-expected payrolls or upward wage revisions could shift odds toward ≤5.0%, a scenario traders price at just 0.1%. Next ONS release on February 18 may catalyze volatility.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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