Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 35.5% for 100k+, 31.0% for 50k–100k, and 26.0% for 0–50k, reflecting uncertainty after February's surprise -92,000 decline amid a 4.4% unemployment rate. Today's ADP report showing +62,000 private-sector jobs—above the 40,000 consensus—provided a key lift, signaling steady hiring in health care despite manufacturing weakness (ISM employment at 48.8). Stable jobless claims (210,000 initial, continuing at 1.819 million low) underpin resilience, but economist forecasts cluster around 55,000–60,000 ahead of Friday's BLS release, where revisions and strike rebounds could swing outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en mars ?
Combien d'emplois ont été ajoutés en mars ?
50 000 – 100 000 39%
100k+ 30%
0 – 50k 26%
-50k – 0 10%
$18,075 Vol.
$18,075 Vol.
<-150k
3%
-150k – -100k
4%
-100k – -50k
2%
-50k – 0
10%
0 – 50k
26%
50 000 – 100 000
33%
100k+
34%
50 000 – 100 000 39%
100k+ 30%
0 – 50k 26%
-50k – 0 10%
$18,075 Vol.
$18,075 Vol.
<-150k
3%
-150k – -100k
4%
-100k – -50k
2%
-50k – 0
10%
0 – 50k
26%
50 000 – 100 000
33%
100k+
34%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 35.5% for 100k+, 31.0% for 50k–100k, and 26.0% for 0–50k, reflecting uncertainty after February's surprise -92,000 decline amid a 4.4% unemployment rate. Today's ADP report showing +62,000 private-sector jobs—above the 40,000 consensus—provided a key lift, signaling steady hiring in health care despite manufacturing weakness (ISM employment at 48.8). Stable jobless claims (210,000 initial, continuing at 1.819 million low) underpin resilience, but economist forecasts cluster around 55,000–60,000 ahead of Friday's BLS release, where revisions and strike rebounds could swing outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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