Spain's overwhelming 81% implied probability as Group H winner stems from their world No. 2 FIFA ranking, unbeaten run through UEFA qualifiers where they topped Group E and secured early qualification, and recent March friendlies including a 3-0 win over Serbia. Uruguay, at 15%, holds trader respect as CONMEBOL's No. 4 qualifier with a potent attack, but faces a tough opener against Saudi Arabia before likely meeting Spain. Cape Verde's historic first World Cup appearance as CAF Group D winners and Saudi Arabia's AFC third-round success add minor upset intrigue at 2.3% each, though both lag in rankings (69th and 61st) and face steep stylistic disadvantages against the European and South American powers in the June 15-26 group stage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourEspagne 81%
Uruguay 15%
Cap-Vert 2.3%
Arabie saoudite 2.3%
$70,761 Vol.
$70,761 Vol.
Espagne
81%
Uruguay
15%
Cap-Vert
2%
Arabie saoudite
2%
Espagne 81%
Uruguay 15%
Cap-Vert 2.3%
Arabie saoudite 2.3%
$70,761 Vol.
$70,761 Vol.
Espagne
81%
Uruguay
15%
Cap-Vert
2%
Arabie saoudite
2%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain's overwhelming 81% implied probability as Group H winner stems from their world No. 2 FIFA ranking, unbeaten run through UEFA qualifiers where they topped Group E and secured early qualification, and recent March friendlies including a 3-0 win over Serbia. Uruguay, at 15%, holds trader respect as CONMEBOL's No. 4 qualifier with a potent attack, but faces a tough opener against Saudi Arabia before likely meeting Spain. Cape Verde's historic first World Cup appearance as CAF Group D winners and Saudi Arabia's AFC third-round success add minor upset intrigue at 2.3% each, though both lag in rankings (69th and 61st) and face steep stylistic disadvantages against the European and South American powers in the June 15-26 group stage.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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