Trader consensus favors Netherlands at 58.5% to win Group F, bolstered by their seventh-ranked FIFA status, unbeaten qualifying campaign under Ronald Koeman, and superior squad depth featuring stars like Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, positioning them to top the group ahead of fixtures starting June 2026. Japan's 20% implied probability reflects their upset prowess, including the 2022 group-stage victory over Germany, and efficient Asian qualifying, making them a live contender despite stylistic vulnerabilities against Europe's physicality. The 16% on the UEFA Path B winner—now narrowed to Sweden or Poland after Sweden's 3-1 semi-final rout of Ukraine (Viktor Gyökeres hat-trick) and Poland's 2-1 edge over Albania on March 26—accounts for either's potential but underscores their underdog status versus the leaders. Tunisia trails at 4%, hampered by modest recent form despite securing qualification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPays-Bas 59%
Japon 20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UKR 16%
Tunisie 4.0%
$23,176 Vol.
$23,176 Vol.
Pays-Bas
59%
Japon
20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UKR
16%
Tunisie
4%
Pays-Bas 59%
Japon 20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UKR 16%
Tunisie 4.0%
$23,176 Vol.
$23,176 Vol.
Pays-Bas
59%
Japon
20%
ALB/POL/SUE/UKR
16%
Tunisie
4%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Netherlands at 58.5% to win Group F, bolstered by their seventh-ranked FIFA status, unbeaten qualifying campaign under Ronald Koeman, and superior squad depth featuring stars like Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, positioning them to top the group ahead of fixtures starting June 2026. Japan's 20% implied probability reflects their upset prowess, including the 2022 group-stage victory over Germany, and efficient Asian qualifying, making them a live contender despite stylistic vulnerabilities against Europe's physicality. The 16% on the UEFA Path B winner—now narrowed to Sweden or Poland after Sweden's 3-1 semi-final rout of Ukraine (Viktor Gyökeres hat-trick) and Poland's 2-1 edge over Albania on March 26—accounts for either's potential but underscores their underdog status versus the leaders. Tunisia trails at 4%, hampered by modest recent form despite securing qualification.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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