Mercedes' commanding qualifying lockout at Suzuka, with Kimi Antonelli on pole ahead of George Russell, has driven Polymarket head-to-head probabilities heavily toward Mercedes drivers and midfield rivals like Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris outperforming Max Verstappen, who struggled to a P11 grid slot after a Q2 exit. This reflects Red Bull's ongoing pace deficit seen in practices and the early 2026 season standings where Antonelli leads with 72 points. Suzuka's tight, flowing layout limits overtaking, amplifying starting position importance alongside tire strategy on mediums and hards, potential DNFs from high-speed corners, and clean air advantages for the front-runners ahead of Sunday's race start.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$23,897 Vol.
Colapinto vs Gasly
Gasly
Albon vs Jr.
Jr.
Bortoleto vs Hulkenberg
Hulkenberg
Perez vs Bottas
Perez
Leclerc vs Hamilton
Leclerc
Ocon vs Bearman
Ocon
Norris vs Piastri
Piastri
Russell vs Antonelli
Antonelli
Verstappen vs Hadjar
Verstappen
Lindblad vs Lawson
Lawson
Leclerc vs Norris
Leclerc
Leclerc vs Verstappen
Leclerc
Leclerc vs Piastri
Piastri
Leclerc vs Russell
Leclerc
Norris vs Verstappen
Norris
Norris vs Hamilton
Norris
Norris vs Russell
Russell
Verstappen vs Hamilton
Hamilton
Verstappen vs Piastri
Piastri
Verstappen vs Russell
Russell
Hamilton vs Piastri
Piastri
Hamilton vs Russell
Russell
Piastri vs Russell
Piastri
$23,897 Vol.
Colapinto vs Gasly
Gasly
Albon vs Jr.
Jr.
Bortoleto vs Hulkenberg
Hulkenberg
Perez vs Bottas
Perez
Leclerc vs Hamilton
Leclerc
Ocon vs Bearman
Ocon
Norris vs Piastri
Piastri
Russell vs Antonelli
Antonelli
Verstappen vs Hadjar
Verstappen
Lindblad vs Lawson
Lawson
Leclerc vs Norris
Leclerc
Leclerc vs Verstappen
Leclerc
Leclerc vs Piastri
Piastri
Leclerc vs Russell
Leclerc
Norris vs Verstappen
Norris
Norris vs Hamilton
Norris
Norris vs Russell
Russell
Verstappen vs Hamilton
Hamilton
Verstappen vs Piastri
Piastri
Verstappen vs Russell
Russell
Hamilton vs Piastri
Piastri
Hamilton vs Russell
Russell
Piastri vs Russell
Piastri
If Russell finishes ahead of Antonelli, this market will resolve to "Russell".
If Antonelli finishes ahead of Russell, this market will resolve to "Antonelli".
In the case of a tie between two drivers, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the Japanese Grand Prix is postponed this market will remain open until the vent has been completed. If the Japanese Grand Prix is permanently canceled this market will resolve 50-50.
If either driver fails to finish the race (including DNF, DSQ, or any other non-finish), the driver who completes more laps will be considered to have finished ahead. If both drivers complete the same number of laps, this market will resolve 50-50, regardless of the order in which they retired. This rule applies even if one or both drivers are unclassified in the FIA “Final Classification.”
This market will resolve based on the "Final Classification" published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The "Final Classification" is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.
Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 7:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Antonelli
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Antonelli
If Russell finishes ahead of Antonelli, this market will resolve to "Russell".
If Antonelli finishes ahead of Russell, this market will resolve to "Antonelli".
In the case of a tie between two drivers, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the Japanese Grand Prix is postponed this market will remain open until the vent has been completed. If the Japanese Grand Prix is permanently canceled this market will resolve 50-50.
If either driver fails to finish the race (including DNF, DSQ, or any other non-finish), the driver who completes more laps will be considered to have finished ahead. If both drivers complete the same number of laps, this market will resolve 50-50, regardless of the order in which they retired. This rule applies even if one or both drivers are unclassified in the FIA “Final Classification.”
This market will resolve based on the "Final Classification" published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The "Final Classification" is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.
Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Antonelli
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Antonelli
Mercedes' commanding qualifying lockout at Suzuka, with Kimi Antonelli on pole ahead of George Russell, has driven Polymarket head-to-head probabilities heavily toward Mercedes drivers and midfield rivals like Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris outperforming Max Verstappen, who struggled to a P11 grid slot after a Q2 exit. This reflects Red Bull's ongoing pace deficit seen in practices and the early 2026 season standings where Antonelli leads with 72 points. Suzuka's tight, flowing layout limits overtaking, amplifying starting position importance alongside tire strategy on mediums and hards, potential DNFs from high-speed corners, and clean air advantages for the front-runners ahead of Sunday's race start.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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