Trader consensus prices George Russell at 36% implied probability for fastest lap at the Japanese Grand Prix, with Lewis Hamilton close at 30%, driven by Mercedes' sharp single-lap pace in Suzuka's FP2 where Russell ranked third, just 0.079 seconds off Max Verstappen's benchmark time. The top outcomes remain tightly bunched—Norris, Hadjar, Antonelli, Verstappen, and Piastri all hovering 25-27%—as the top seven drivers lapped within 0.3 seconds across practice sessions, highlighting intense competition on Suzuka's high-speed corners and flowing sectors that reward precise qualifying simulations and clean air laps. McLaren's Oscar Piastri topped FP1 with identical pace to Verstappen in FP2, while Mercedes' recent floor upgrades boost their race pace potential via optimal tire strategy and late soft-tire runs for the bonus point.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGeorge Russell 36%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 34%
Lewis Hamilton 32%
Lando Norris 27%
George Russell
36%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
31%
Lewis Hamilton
32%
Lando Norris
27%
Oscar Piastri
27%
Isack Hadjar
26%
Charles Leclerc
17%
Max Verstappen
26%
Oliver Bearman
2%
Alexander Albon
2%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
2%
Valtteri Bottas
2%
Arvid Lindblad
2%
Pierre Gasly
2%
Fernando Alonso
2%
Sergio Perez
2%
Esteban Ocon
2%
Liam Lawson
2%
Franco Colapinto
1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
1%
Nico Hulkenberg
1%
George Russell 36%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli 34%
Lewis Hamilton 32%
Lando Norris 27%
George Russell
36%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
31%
Lewis Hamilton
32%
Lando Norris
27%
Oscar Piastri
27%
Isack Hadjar
26%
Charles Leclerc
17%
Max Verstappen
26%
Oliver Bearman
2%
Alexander Albon
2%
Carlos Sainz Jr.
2%
Valtteri Bottas
2%
Arvid Lindblad
2%
Pierre Gasly
2%
Fernando Alonso
2%
Sergio Perez
2%
Esteban Ocon
2%
Liam Lawson
2%
Franco Colapinto
1%
Gabriel Bortoleto
1%
Nico Hulkenberg
1%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially credited with the fastest lap in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The fastest lap must be set during the race itself; times from practice sessions, qualifying, or any other sessions are not considered.
If no driver completes a lap during the race (e.g., due to a red flag ending the race prematurely), this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices George Russell at 36% implied probability for fastest lap at the Japanese Grand Prix, with Lewis Hamilton close at 30%, driven by Mercedes' sharp single-lap pace in Suzuka's FP2 where Russell ranked third, just 0.079 seconds off Max Verstappen's benchmark time. The top outcomes remain tightly bunched—Norris, Hadjar, Antonelli, Verstappen, and Piastri all hovering 25-27%—as the top seven drivers lapped within 0.3 seconds across practice sessions, highlighting intense competition on Suzuka's high-speed corners and flowing sectors that reward precise qualifying simulations and clean air laps. McLaren's Oscar Piastri topped FP1 with identical pace to Verstappen in FP2, while Mercedes' recent floor upgrades boost their race pace potential via optimal tire strategy and late soft-tire runs for the bonus point.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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