Mercedes' commanding front-row lockout in qualifying at Suzuka, with rookie Kimi Antonelli securing pole position (1:28.778) ahead of teammate George Russell (+0.298s), has solidified trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability for the squad to claim first constructor points via the highest finisher. This follows Mercedes' dominance across practices—1-2 in FP1 and FP3, with superior long-run pace (0.6s/lap quicker) and lowest tire degradation on mediums—building on their early 2026 championship lead despite McLaren's FP2 challenge from Oscar Piastri. Red Bull faltered with Verstappen's Q2 exit, while others lag. Realistic challenges include botched starts at the narrow Esses, mechanical failures, or safety car-induced strategy disruptions enabling McLaren's P3 grid threat to capitalize.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMercedes 99.4%
Mclaren Mastercard 8.0%
Red Bull <1%
Alpine <1%
$20,288 Vol.
$20,288 Vol.
Mercedes
99%
Mclaren Mastercard
25%
Red Bull
1%
Alpine
1%
Ferrari
<1%
Williams
<1%
Racing Bulls
<1%
Aston Martin
<1%
Audi Revolut
<1%
Cadillac
<1%
Tgr Haas
<1%
Mercedes 99.4%
Mclaren Mastercard 8.0%
Red Bull <1%
Alpine <1%
$20,288 Vol.
$20,288 Vol.
Mercedes
99%
Mclaren Mastercard
25%
Red Bull
1%
Alpine
1%
Ferrari
<1%
Williams
<1%
Racing Bulls
<1%
Aston Martin
<1%
Audi Revolut
<1%
Cadillac
<1%
Tgr Haas
<1%
In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 8:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes' commanding front-row lockout in qualifying at Suzuka, with rookie Kimi Antonelli securing pole position (1:28.778) ahead of teammate George Russell (+0.298s), has solidified trader consensus at 99.4% implied probability for the squad to claim first constructor points via the highest finisher. This follows Mercedes' dominance across practices—1-2 in FP1 and FP3, with superior long-run pace (0.6s/lap quicker) and lowest tire degradation on mediums—building on their early 2026 championship lead despite McLaren's FP2 challenge from Oscar Piastri. Red Bull faltered with Verstappen's Q2 exit, while others lag. Realistic challenges include botched starts at the narrow Esses, mechanical failures, or safety car-induced strategy disruptions enabling McLaren's P3 grid threat to capitalize.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes