Mercedes holds an 83.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite for the Japanese Grand Prix constructor to score first, driven by their Constructors' Championship lead with 98 points from Australia and China victories, showcasing superior race pace under 2026 regulations. George Russell topped FP1 at Suzuka with 1:31.666 ahead of teammate Kimi Antonelli (+0.026s), while FP2 saw McLaren's Oscar Piastri set the benchmark (1:30.133) but Mercedes slot P2-P3, reports highlighting their long-run tire degradation edge vital for the demanding 53-lap layout. Ferrari (13.5%) follows on Charles Leclerc's consistent qualifying pace, McLaren (8.5%) poses upset threat via Piastri-Norris form, but midfield packs like Alpine, Red Bull trail amid reliability concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMercedes 85%
Ferrari 17%
Alpine 13%
Audi Revolut 13%
Mercedes
85%
Ferrari
14%
Alpine
13%
Audi Revolut
13%
Red Bull
13%
Tgr Haas
12%
Mclaren Mastercard
9%
Racing Bulls
10%
Aston Martin
1%
Williams
1%
Cadillac
<1%
Mercedes 85%
Ferrari 17%
Alpine 13%
Audi Revolut 13%
Mercedes
85%
Ferrari
14%
Alpine
13%
Audi Revolut
13%
Red Bull
13%
Tgr Haas
12%
Mclaren Mastercard
9%
Racing Bulls
10%
Aston Martin
1%
Williams
1%
Cadillac
<1%
In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 8:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the case of a tie between two teams for most points, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
As soon as the results for this event are known, this market will resolve.
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 5, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1 (F1).
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes holds an 83.5% implied probability as trader consensus favorite for the Japanese Grand Prix constructor to score first, driven by their Constructors' Championship lead with 98 points from Australia and China victories, showcasing superior race pace under 2026 regulations. George Russell topped FP1 at Suzuka with 1:31.666 ahead of teammate Kimi Antonelli (+0.026s), while FP2 saw McLaren's Oscar Piastri set the benchmark (1:30.133) but Mercedes slot P2-P3, reports highlighting their long-run tire degradation edge vital for the demanding 53-lap layout. Ferrari (13.5%) follows on Charles Leclerc's consistent qualifying pace, McLaren (8.5%) poses upset threat via Piastri-Norris form, but midfield packs like Alpine, Red Bull trail amid reliability concerns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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