Mercedes' commanding practice pace at Suzuka has solidified trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability for the constructor pole position in the Japanese Grand Prix qualifying, with George Russell posting the quickest FP2 time on soft tires ahead of Lewis Hamilton, showcasing their upgraded aero package's effectiveness through the high-speed Esses and Spoon corners. Ferrari trails closely at 28.5% following Charles Leclerc's strong long-run simulations and low-fuel sector gains in FP1, positioning them as the primary challenger amid Red Bull's uncharacteristic struggles with balance and understeer that dropped them to 2.5%. Lower probabilities for Racing Bulls (16%), Aston Martin (14.5%), and Williams (14%) reflect competitive single-lap showings but inconsistency on the abrasive track surface, with FP3 set to refine setups before Q1-Q3 tomorrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMercedes 71%
Ferrari 34%
Racing Bulls 32%
Aston Martin 14.5%
Mercedes
71%
Ferrari
28%
Racing Bulls
32%
Aston Martin
14%
Williams
14%
Audi Revolut
10%
Mclaren Mastercard
10%
Cadillac
8%
Tgr Haas
3%
Red Bull
3%
Alpine
2%
Mercedes 71%
Ferrari 34%
Racing Bulls 32%
Aston Martin 14.5%
Mercedes
71%
Ferrari
28%
Racing Bulls
32%
Aston Martin
14%
Williams
14%
Audi Revolut
10%
Mclaren Mastercard
10%
Cadillac
8%
Tgr Haas
3%
Red Bull
3%
Alpine
2%
If the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Apr 4, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team.
The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 7:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/racesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mercedes' commanding practice pace at Suzuka has solidified trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability for the constructor pole position in the Japanese Grand Prix qualifying, with George Russell posting the quickest FP2 time on soft tires ahead of Lewis Hamilton, showcasing their upgraded aero package's effectiveness through the high-speed Esses and Spoon corners. Ferrari trails closely at 28.5% following Charles Leclerc's strong long-run simulations and low-fuel sector gains in FP1, positioning them as the primary challenger amid Red Bull's uncharacteristic struggles with balance and understeer that dropped them to 2.5%. Lower probabilities for Racing Bulls (16%), Aston Martin (14.5%), and Williams (14%) reflect competitive single-lap showings but inconsistency on the abrasive track surface, with FP3 set to refine setups before Q1-Q3 tomorrow.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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