President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s constitutional term runs through the scheduled 2028 presidential election, with no snap election called and the AKP-led coalition retaining parliamentary control. Recent months show continued active leadership, including public addresses on regional diplomacy in May 2026 and a January declaration framing 2026 as a “year of reform,” while earlier health speculation from early 2026 has not produced official developments or power transitions. Approval ratings near 46 percent amid geopolitical tensions have further stabilized his position against opposition figures such as Ekrem İmamoğlu, whose challenges remain oriented toward the 2028 contest. Absent triggers like resignation announcements, health crises, or successful no-confidence actions, trader consensus at 89.5 percent for “No” reflects the structural barriers to an exit by December 31, 2026, though late-breaking events could still alter the timeline.