Name: Biden Disapproval on Dec 29
Start: 2023-12-27T22:19:18.16Z
End: 2023-12-29T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's disapproval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is greater than 55.5% for the day of December 29, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's disapproval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the disapproval rating indicated by the purple trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for December 29 as soon as a datapoint for December 30 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the December 30 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for December 29 is available by January 1, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous disapproval rating to December 29.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

>55.5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's disapproval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is less than 55.0% for the day of December 29, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's disapproval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the disapproval rating indicated by the purple trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for December 29 as soon as a datapoint for December 30 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the December 30 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for December 29 is available by January 1, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous disapproval rating to December 29.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

<55.0%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden's disapproval rating as reported by FiveThirtyEight is between 55.0% and 55.5% (inclusive) for the day of December 29, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's disapproval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the disapproval rating indicated by the purple trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

This market will resolve according to the datapoint for December 29 as soon as a datapoint for December 30 becomes available. This market may not resolve until the December 30 datapoint is available. If no datapoint for December 29 is available by January 1, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous disapproval rating to December 29.

Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

55.0% - 55.5%

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 28, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the federal funds rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 27-28, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “Other” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (<2 or ≥2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

<55.0%
$0 Vol.
No

55.0% - 55.5%
$253 Vol.
Yes

>55.5%
$4 Vol.
No

Contexte du Marché

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

Règles

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

Contexte du Marché

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

À propos

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

<55.0%$0 Vol.No

55.0% - 55.5%$253 Vol.Yes

>55.5%$4 Vol.No

Contexte du Marché

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

Règles

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

Contexte du Marché

Biden Disapproval on Dec 29

À propos

<55.0%
$0 Vol.
No

55.0% - 55.5%
$253 Vol.
Yes

>55.5%
$4 Vol.
No