Iran's de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and retaliatory actions, has driven maritime traffic to historic lows, with verified data from Lloyd's List and Windward showing daily transits plummeting from a normal 130-150 vessels to 0-7 by end-March. Selective passage for allied ships—primarily Chinese containerships and shadow fleet tankers—under new IRGC-imposed tolls averaging millions per transit kept averages firmly in the 0-10 range over the final week, as clusters of loitering vessels awaited approval. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects this sustained blockade's impact on the global oil chokepoint. Reversal would require U.S.-led military clearance or swift diplomacy, though no such signals have emerged.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit d'Ormuz fin mars ?
Nombre moyen de navires transitant par le détroit d'Ormuz fin mars ?
0-10 99.3%
10-20 <1%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,587,258 Vol.
$1,587,258 Vol.
31 mars 2026
0-10
99%
10-20
<1%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 99.3%
10-20 <1%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,587,258 Vol.
$1,587,258 Vol.
31 mars 2026
0-10
$478,603 Vol.
99%
10-20
$292,106 Vol.
<1%
20-30
$120,820 Vol.
<1%
30-40
$293,655 Vol.
<1%
40-50
$220,888 Vol.
<1%
50-60
$88,766 Vol.
<1%
60+
$92,419 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iran's de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and retaliatory actions, has driven maritime traffic to historic lows, with verified data from Lloyd's List and Windward showing daily transits plummeting from a normal 130-150 vessels to 0-7 by end-March. Selective passage for allied ships—primarily Chinese containerships and shadow fleet tankers—under new IRGC-imposed tolls averaging millions per transit kept averages firmly in the 0-10 range over the final week, as clusters of loitering vessels awaited approval. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects this sustained blockade's impact on the global oil chokepoint. Reversal would require U.S.-led military clearance or swift diplomacy, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,587,258Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Iran's de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and retaliatory actions, has driven maritime traffic to historic lows, with verified data from Lloyd's List and Windward showing daily transits plummeting from a normal 130-150 vessels to 0-7 by end-March. Selective passage for allied ships—primarily Chinese containerships and shadow fleet tankers—under new IRGC-imposed tolls averaging millions per transit kept averages firmly in the 0-10 range over the final week, as clusters of loitering vessels awaited approval. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects this sustained blockade's impact on the global oil chokepoint. Reversal would require U.S.-led military clearance or swift diplomacy, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,587,258Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Iran's de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz since late February 2026, amid U.S.-Israeli strikes and retaliatory actions, has driven maritime traffic to historic lows, with verified data from Lloyd's List and Windward showing daily transits plummeting from a normal 130-150 vessels to 0-7 by end-March. Selective passage for allied ships—primarily Chinese containerships and shadow fleet tankers—under new IRGC-imposed tolls averaging millions per transit kept averages firmly in the 0-10 range over the final week, as clusters of loitering vessels awaited approval. Trader consensus at 99.3% reflects this sustained blockade's impact on the global oil chokepoint. Reversal would require U.S.-led military clearance or swift diplomacy, though no such signals have emerged.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes