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Which countries will Trump tariff on April 2?

$698,351 Vol.

Apr 2, 2025

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

RESULT

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named.

The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

Volume

$698,351

End Date

Apr 2, 2025

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Comments (207)
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Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.

Rewter

11h ago

Russia doesn’t even have 10%, nor does Canada or Mexico which were not mentioned on April 2 either - Australia is actually on that oversized document trump was holding

Rewter

11h ago

Australia was subject to a tariff - why do I lose?

President Trump is up on national television waving a fucking sign listing Australia as part of his reciprocal tarrif plan and polymarket says no because its a 'global tariff.' How the fuck is it a global tariff when it isn't applied globally? Where the fuck are the global tariffs for Belarus, Burkina Faso, Cuba, North Korea, Palau, Russia, Seychelles, Somalia, and Vatican City. It's not a fucking global tariff if its not applied globally.

TedKazinsky

@squatnozzle

Exactly, these people steal money in markets about tariff Annoucments and make it about a percentage rate classification. Scum.

Bltmximus

17h ago

How is Brazil a no, when it was definitely called out directly as receiving a 10%?

TPTPTPTPTPTPTPTPTP

@Jarjarbuzzed

10% applies to all imports from all countries, the rules exclude global tarriffs. The tariff has to be specific to the country. Brazil is never mentioned in the EO or the Annex list, but only included in the global tariff.

TedKazinsky

@TPTPTPTPTPTP...

You’re Scum

TedKazinsky

Polymarket is cooked. Every AI said the case for Australia was an airtight Yes. I’m never coming back.

MTT75017

1d ago

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@MTT75017

tariffs on all imports to the US do not qualify for this market

Bltmximus

1d ago

Resolve Australia to yes

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@Bltmximus

it resolved no

Trh

Trh

1d ago

@Bltmximus

Rules: "Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution"

TPTPTPTPTPTPTPTPTP

Australia just resolved no. Both Australia and Brazil are part of the 10% global tariff.

France is a part of Europe give me my winnings wtf

@joepadawan

You gotta read the rules when you place bets dawg

Free2Bash

1d ago

Feels kinda fishy to resolve australia but not brazil :(

TPTPTPTPTPTPTPTPTP

@Free2Bash

It will be next when Australia goes no

TPTPTPTPTPTPTPTPTP

"Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify" here is the list https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Annex-I.pdf

Sadly no tariffs on Canada and Mexicob

Fuck china

He needs to put like 120% tariffs on china. They steal so much of our money it's INSANE. We would lower the deficit by 50% in like 6 months

All these shitholes that he tariffed like Serbia and etc probably trade less shit with america than 10 american families buy food in 1 month. This sucks ass

I'm so disappointed. I thought he was gonna tariff the whole Europe and south America Asia or something seems like he tariffed 20 irrelevant shitholes and China (we knew that) India(we knew that) the only shocks are south Korea, Japan and Vietnam. This sucks ass

Donald Trump holds up a tariff board with Australia listed on it. (9News)

President Donald Trump singling out Australia’s ban on US beef as a major sticking point

mplah

1d ago

Australia market should resolve to "NO" as the tarrif on Australia falls within the global tarrifs on any country of 10%. The countries which were specifically targeted can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Annex-I.pdf

rjpoly

1d ago

There is no way in hell you can call this a global tariff. Canada missing. Russia missing. Vatican City missing. I don't have faith in Polymarket and/or UMA to get this right, but the pricing on some of these countries is insane right now

rjpoly

1d ago

Vatican City is not on the list. The US has trade with Vatican City as shown on the census site. This is 100% not a global tariff https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4752.html

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@rjpoly

read the fact sheet https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/

Official list of country specific tariffs above the 10% global tariff: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Annex-I.pdf

mr.ozi

mr.ozi

1d ago

@basedcentral

Thanks, it’s done

rjpoly

2d ago

This is not a global tariff. This is a specific list of countries which is being tariffed (case in point Vatican City is not named on the list). Any country named on the list should resolve yes including Australia and Brazil

Janes10

2d ago

@rjpoly

Brazil and Australia wont count.

Janes10

2d ago

@Janes10

They are on global 10% tarriffs

FabulousCar

https://youtu.be/BSASd4uNgTc?si=IE2F5BFjMdD0k16E&t=1434 Why is the probability for brazil so low? He announced specific tariffs for the country during his "liberation" speech.

Aurik

Aurik

2d ago

Can someone propose please?

TedKazinsky

The Polymarket criteria don’t require the tariff rate to differ from the baseline (though Australia’s could be debated as “reciprocal” or not), only that it be new and directed at the country. Australia’s case is a standout because Trump made it a focal point, not a footnote. That’s a slam dunk for “Yes” in the market.

Bltmximus

1d ago

@TedKazinsky

Yeah rigged pay us out

xxxxMan

2d ago

Look, Australia and Brazil were specifically mentioned and assigned a tariff increase to 10% from the current average of 2.5%. The only issue is the definition of a global tariff. Global in a sense means across the board tariffs applied to all countries. As seen clearly from the list, Russia, Canada, Mexico are not on the list. So how is that global when some countries are clearly exempted? If it can be established that the general tariffs of 10% is indeed not global, then the market in Australia and Brazil should resolve to YES.

ezz

2d ago

Tariffs on all imports from countries specified in the list...

syncope

syncope

2d ago

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Annex-I.pdf. No tariff on Australia or Brazil.

xxxxMan

2d ago

@syncope

Think about it. A global tariff is a set percentage tariffs that applies to every country. Take for instance the automotive tariffs. 25% across the board. It is global in nature. So if the one on Australia is a global tariffs, then why are other countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and EU not receiving the equal global tariff of 10%? And first off, the list is Annex I, which means it is an incomplete list.

ezz

2d ago

All countries that are resolved to NO are not on the released list. But Australia and Brazil are on the list.

TedKazinsky

Basically new tariffs announced, on named countries, will count as yes

ezz

2d ago

If its global tariffs on all imports then there wouldn't be any list. Cuz its global, meaning that it affects all countries. But, they did release a list that doesn't contain all countries.

TedKazinsky

Australia is a part of the “dirty 15” countries targeted in this announcement. Those 15 countries were a main priority to get these Tarrif announced for.

"yes" for any 10 % . "No" for more .

TedKazinsky

Australia was mentioned specifically with new tariff today, given the trade issue, making it a new announcement of reciprocal tariffs.

SusanWarren,HR

@TedKazinsky

He listed a bunch of countries in his speech. Canada, Mexico, and Australia were some of the countries in them. He didn't say anything about a specific tariff against Australia. He mentioned how they banned US beef and hinted that maybe US would ban Australian beef - a ban is not a tariff.

TedKazinsky

@SusanWarren,...

it was a country named (Australia) tariff with a note form the president about the beef trade issue.

dapht

2d ago

Well the white house clarified after the speech that "discounted reciprocal tariff" includes the 10% worldwide tariff ...

ANALista

ANALista

2d ago

Cope

Outcome: Yes

Vietnam