Recent national polling from mid-2026 onward shows Morena maintaining a wide lead for first place in the June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election, while PAN registers the strongest support among opposition parties at roughly 11-17 percent, ahead of PRI and MC. This positioning underpins trader consensus on PAN for second place. The PAN's October 2025 decision to contest the election independently ended its prior alliance with the PRI, though state-level coordination talks continue. Separate candidacies by MC and limited momentum for PRI or smaller parties like PVEM and PT have further concentrated expectations around PAN as the primary challenger for the runner-up spot. Coalition negotiations and final candidate slates through early 2027 remain key variables.