Morena's commanding lead in recent national polling for the June 2027 Chamber of Deputies election underpins trader consensus that it will win the most seats. Surveys from late 2026, including those by LaEncuesta.mx, Parametría, and Buendía & Márquez, place Morena at 35-41% voting intention, well ahead of a fragmented opposition where PAN, PRI, and MC each trail by 18-26 points. As the incumbent ruling party under President Claudia Sheinbaum, Morena benefits from unified organization, alliances with PT and PVEM, and a large registered electorate exceeding 100 million. The federal electoral process formally opened in September 2026, with no major shifts yet altering these patterns ahead of candidate selection in early 2027.
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