Morena maintains a commanding lead in voting intention for Mexico’s 2027 Chamber of Deputies election, with recent national polls placing it between 35% and 41%, well ahead of the fragmented opposition. The party’s organizational strength, large membership base, and alignment with the current administration under President Claudia Sheinbaum underpin trader consensus on its position as the likely plurality or majority winner. Opposition parties remain divided, with PAN, PRI, and MC each polling in single or low double digits and showing limited signs of coordinated alliances ahead of the June contest. Morena’s upcoming National Council meeting to finalize alliance strategy adds near-term clarity on coalition dynamics, while broader uncertainty persists over whether the ruling bloc will retain an absolute legislative majority.