March 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)
$2,874,806 Vol.
Mar 31, 2025
1.32-1.36 100.0%
<1.22 <1%
1.22-1.26 <1%
1.27-1.31 <1%
Source: Polymarket.com
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
RESULT
Rules
Additional context
Updated Apr 10
This market's title has been corrected to refer to March 2025.
This market will resolve to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2025 when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of a named bracket for March 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2025 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2025 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
An anomaly of a named bracket for March 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for March 2025 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2025 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Volume
$2,874,806
End Date
Mar 31, 2025
Resolver
0x2F5e3684cb...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Comments
Top Holders
Activity
Related
Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.
Yuny
1d ago
pls give me something
PermanentInsomni...
2d ago
This market's comments monthly bingo: -insider trading -why are people so confident -according to copernicus it's gonna be (insert wrong data) -whales manipulate NASA
alex562
3d ago
its next hour the release? shouldnt have been now?
alex-sandr11
3d ago
Just FYI guys that aenews being mentioned quite a few times here holds both positions: 1.32-1.36 and 1.37-1.41 ;)
Crixus92
3d ago
What time will the data be published?
alex-sandr11
4d ago
I assume someone can be that certain only if they have insider information, right? Otherwise it doesn't make any sense that one bracket is at 98% already
samhain4ik
4d ago
In March the sea surface temp was ~0.12C lower than in 2024, and it accounts ~70% of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index... GL to everyone!
RIPWEATHERMAN
4d ago
second warmest according to era5 and first according to JRA-3Q.. highly likely then its over 1.35 according to GISTEMP. GL!
samhain4ik
4d ago
the second warmest, but ~0,08C below the top (era5)?
Fister
4d ago
The market manipulators provide traders with excellent opportunity to get astronomical returns on the cheap at this stage.
AussieRulesFloof...
5d ago
why is everyone so confident. I'm new to this market, but a 96% chance of a .04 degree window seems real tight.
RIPWEATHERMAN
5d ago
Alright, final call based on JRA-3Q, ERA3, and Berkeley is 1.41C to 1.42C. If I nail it, hit me on discord and I'll show you how. If I don't.. Well, I'm at the bar. GL everyone!
gang-gang
5d ago
1.36
RIPWEATHERMAN
6d ago
All of you who are assuming the win.. remember.. its based on GISTEMP. fwiw, JRA-3Q ("three quarters of a century) released March 2025 data and it's 0.04C warmer than 2024. It ain't over till it's over!
2hot2handle
6d ago
gonna be a photo finish. goodluck everyone.. prob the most exciting these weather ones get hah
MDC
6d ago
1.42 https://www.met.ie/climate-statement-for-march-2025
FOW
6d ago
What the hell are people looking at which makes them so confident, 1 week into a month, that the global temperature anomaly will be exactly 1.22-1.26?
Fister
7d ago
1.27-1.31
Mbchs
9d ago
1.22-1.26
Pipedrin
10d ago
Preliminary datasets to calculate the results coming out tonight, dont forget to cancel your orders if you dont want to get bamboozled
RIPWEATHERMAN
10d ago
prelim is already out for era5 and ncep.. 2025 is under 2024 by .04 on era5.. easy flip on gistemp as arctic 2025 much higher and weighted heavier.
RIPWEATHERMAN
10d ago
i will say its entertaining to watch the whales buy "no" on each others bids.
Fister
11d ago
Volatility here is mental, which basically says that no one has any clue. Crazy pricing
epicRNG
11d ago
Idk
flip-1397
13d ago
FYI, there are custom-strike contracts (down to the tenth of a degree) available at otc.amciv.com for those who qualify as Eligible Contract Participants. Good for hedging Polymarket or for more granular positions.
AussieRulesFloof...
12d ago
Ah, shame about the US restriction. Technically this rules out anyone that should be accessing polymarket :wink:
0x19407fBEdD2c1D...
13d ago
When does the final result get published?
RIPWEATHERMAN
13d ago
around the 10th of april
RIPWEATHERMAN
13d ago
"dt=" actually ticked upward today. good luck to all
Pipedrin
13d ago
I believe the point estimate based one ERA 5 indicates about 1.33 but the confidence interval is quite wide. My "expert judgment" tells me we might see a downward surprise but I am not planning to go against the more experienced players in this market than me!
gameeerrrr
13d ago
my nasa bro told me hes actually with the CCP so he might be lying
RIPWEATHERMAN
13d ago
lmao
LB1607
14d ago
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/ It was not even one day close to 03.2024 (1.39), compare it simply to 2024...or listen to friends from NASA and buy 1.37-1.41. I "guess" 1.24-1.28
RIPWEATHERMAN
14d ago
dT: matched. Arctic: warmer. Ocean bands: rising. Land: loud. Records aren’t broken with noise..they’re broken with structure.
RIPWEATHERMAN
16d ago
im nasa bro and ur all betting wrong
accelarated
16d ago
in general, I visited some interesting place, where my friend showed me live data from a satellite for the first time, firstly, it is incredibly beautiful, and secondly, I came, of course, for a reason, in general, I use the data up to and including March 27 and their sophisticated forecast system, we calculated the intermediate result with all the probability indicators, since we did not need to do any additional transformations, we got quite clear numbers for today, if you are of course still interested, then this is 1.31-1.32, taking into account additional checks and homogenizations, the data used for this was obtained from a research data bank, good luck!
accelarated
16d ago
specifically the chances of these two bins are almost equal, very close to 50-50
Pipedrin
15d ago
It's hard to say bu I think the 1.32-1.36 is slightly favoured
gameeerrrr
16d ago
my nasa bro told me its 1.22-1.26
accelarated
18d ago
My nasa bro told me that everything is fine:)
SakuraAniaCospla...
23d ago
I am out of this how can get live data? :)))
Mantou11
24d ago
1.34 based on last Gistemp
SakuraAniaCospla...
25d ago
Seems many people here have data.
Pipedrin
25d ago
Or they are all folowing gopfan
SakuraAniaCospla...
24d ago
what is this?
Mantou11
1mo ago
126. Everyone better avoid this market, unless you have access to the data and the calculation.
aenews2
1mo ago
NASA will be publishing the update in 9.3 hours. My contacts have informed me the final anomaly is 125. See everyone next month!
Outcome: No
1.37-1.41