Persistent inflation near 4.2% and a robust labor market, highlighted by May’s strong jobs report, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Market-implied odds via CME FedWatch now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, with futures pricing the possibility of tightening at the September or October FOMC meetings despite economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering, Chair Kevin Warsh’s first, is expected to maintain the target range while the updated dot plot may remove easing signals. Key upcoming catalysts include June CPI data and subsequent employment releases that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFed rate hike by...?
Fed rate hike by...?
$173,373 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
7%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
19%
$173,373 Vol.
June Meeting
$31,093 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$2,703 Vol.
7%
September Meeting
$4,972 Vol.
16%
October Meeting
$3,297 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 4.2% and a robust labor market, highlighted by May’s strong jobs report, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Market-implied odds via CME FedWatch now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, with futures pricing the possibility of tightening at the September or October FOMC meetings despite economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering, Chair Kevin Warsh’s first, is expected to maintain the target range while the updated dot plot may remove easing signals. Key upcoming catalysts include June CPI data and subsequent employment releases that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$173,373Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 4.2% and a robust labor market, highlighted by May’s strong jobs report, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Market-implied odds via CME FedWatch now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, with futures pricing the possibility of tightening at the September or October FOMC meetings despite economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering, Chair Kevin Warsh’s first, is expected to maintain the target range while the updated dot plot may remove easing signals. Key upcoming catalysts include June CPI data and subsequent employment releases that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$173,373Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 4.2% and a robust labor market, highlighted by May’s strong jobs report, have shifted trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, currently at 3.50%-3.75%. Market-implied odds via CME FedWatch now assign roughly 66% probability to at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end, with futures pricing the possibility of tightening at the September or October FOMC meetings despite economist consensus favoring a hold through 2026. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering, Chair Kevin Warsh’s first, is expected to maintain the target range while the updated dot plot may remove easing signals. Key upcoming catalysts include June CPI data and subsequent employment releases that could alter the rate path priced into futures.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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