Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a commanding 90.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%—the second straight pause—amid resilient labor data and sticky inflation. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting February's weakness, while energy shocks from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, tempering cut expectations; Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized anchored inflation outlooks and a "wait-and-see" policy despite upside risks. Sustained economic strength bolsters the consensus hold, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due soon) or renewed job losses could challenge it before the June 17-18 session.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedFed Decision in June?
Fed Decision in June?
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 6%
25 bps increase 3.2%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,402,822 Vol.
$5,402,822 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
3%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 91%
25 bps decrease 6%
25 bps increase 3.2%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,402,822 Vol.
$5,402,822 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,580,718 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$736,779 Vol.
6%
No change
$1,120,994 Vol.
91%
25 bps increase
$1,071,849 Vol.
3%
50+ bps increase
$892,482 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a commanding 90.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%—the second straight pause—amid resilient labor data and sticky inflation. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting February's weakness, while energy shocks from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, tempering cut expectations; Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized anchored inflation outlooks and a "wait-and-see" policy despite upside risks. Sustained economic strength bolsters the consensus hold, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due soon) or renewed job losses could challenge it before the June 17-18 session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volume
$5,402,822End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a commanding 90.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%—the second straight pause—amid resilient labor data and sticky inflation. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting February's weakness, while energy shocks from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, tempering cut expectations; Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized anchored inflation outlooks and a "wait-and-see" policy despite upside risks. Sustained economic strength bolsters the consensus hold, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due soon) or renewed job losses could challenge it before the June 17-18 session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,402,822End Date
Jun 17, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a commanding 90.5% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, anchored by the March 18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75%—the second straight pause—amid resilient labor data and sticky inflation. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 with unemployment at 4.3%, offsetting February's weakness, while energy shocks from the Iran conflict have spiked oil prices, tempering cut expectations; Chair Powell's recent Harvard remarks emphasized anchored inflation outlooks and a "wait-and-see" policy despite upside risks. Sustained economic strength bolsters the consensus hold, though unexpectedly soft April CPI (due soon) or renewed job losses could challenge it before the June 17-18 session.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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