Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (43.5% implied probability) and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 breaking through first (37%), driven by its dominant late-March leaderboard position around 1480 Elo—edging Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by a razor-thin margin after the latter's February launch closed a multi-point gap. Anthropic's edge stems from superior reasoning and coding benchmarks, fueling expectations of iterative gains via larger training runs, while OpenAI's GPT-5.2 lurks in the top five at 1478 Elo, with GPT-5.3 whispers as a wildcard. Open-source challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen trail, hampered by compute limits. Key swing factors include Q2 model releases and vote accumulation, as frontier Elo progress slows amid scaling plateaus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNinguno en 2026 44%
Anthropic 42%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Ninguno en 2026
44%
Anthropic
37%
11%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
4%
DeepSeek
3%
Alibaba
2%
Mistral
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Ninguno en 2026 44%
Anthropic 42%
Google 11%
OpenAI 7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Ninguno en 2026
$0 Vol.
44%
Anthropic
$2,770 Vol.
37%
$3,866 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
7%
xAI
$0 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (43.5% implied probability) and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 breaking through first (37%), driven by its dominant late-March leaderboard position around 1480 Elo—edging Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by a razor-thin margin after the latter's February launch closed a multi-point gap. Anthropic's edge stems from superior reasoning and coding benchmarks, fueling expectations of iterative gains via larger training runs, while OpenAI's GPT-5.2 lurks in the top five at 1478 Elo, with GPT-5.3 whispers as a wildcard. Open-source challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen trail, hampered by compute limits. Key swing factors include Q2 model releases and vote accumulation, as frontier Elo progress slows amid scaling plateaus.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Volumen
$6,636Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (43.5% implied probability) and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 breaking through first (37%), driven by its dominant late-March leaderboard position around 1480 Elo—edging Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by a razor-thin margin after the latter's February launch closed a multi-point gap. Anthropic's edge stems from superior reasoning and coding benchmarks, fueling expectations of iterative gains via larger training runs, while OpenAI's GPT-5.2 lurks in the top five at 1478 Elo, with GPT-5.3 whispers as a wildcard. Open-source challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen trail, hampered by compute limits. Key swing factors include Q2 model releases and vote accumulation, as frontier Elo progress slows amid scaling plateaus.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volumen
$6,636Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between no AI model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 (43.5% implied probability) and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 breaking through first (37%), driven by its dominant late-March leaderboard position around 1480 Elo—edging Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro by a razor-thin margin after the latter's February launch closed a multi-point gap. Anthropic's edge stems from superior reasoning and coding benchmarks, fueling expectations of iterative gains via larger training runs, while OpenAI's GPT-5.2 lurks in the top five at 1478 Elo, with GPT-5.3 whispers as a wildcard. Open-source challengers like DeepSeek and Alibaba's Qwen trail, hampered by compute limits. Key swing factors include Q2 model releases and vote accumulation, as frontier Elo progress slows amid scaling plateaus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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