Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Delcy Rodríguez at 59% as Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, driven by her role as vice president and PSUV executive secretary, positioning her as Maduro regime successor amid consolidation after the disputed July 2024 election. Maduro's odds have slipped to 15%, reflecting entrenched control but pressures from economic collapse, U.S. sanctions, and unverified health concerns potentially forcing a transition. María Corina Machado's 13.5% captures opposition resilience despite her ineligibility and exile of allies like Edmundo González following post-election protests and arrests. Recent PSUV party maneuvers elevating Rodríguez, alongside suppressed dissent and stalled international mediation, reinforce regime continuity bets, though oil prices and 2025 diplomacy loom as catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Líder de Venezuela a finales de 2026?
¿Líder de Venezuela a finales de 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez 61%
Nicolás Maduro 15.8%
María Corina Machado 14%
Edmundo González 1.9%
$74,858,673 Vol.
$74,858,673 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
61%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
2%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Sin jefe de Estado
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 61%
Nicolás Maduro 15.8%
María Corina Machado 14%
Edmundo González 1.9%
$74,858,673 Vol.
$74,858,673 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
61%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
2%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Sin jefe de Estado
1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Delcy Rodríguez at 59% as Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, driven by her role as vice president and PSUV executive secretary, positioning her as Maduro regime successor amid consolidation after the disputed July 2024 election. Maduro's odds have slipped to 15%, reflecting entrenched control but pressures from economic collapse, U.S. sanctions, and unverified health concerns potentially forcing a transition. María Corina Machado's 13.5% captures opposition resilience despite her ineligibility and exile of allies like Edmundo González following post-election protests and arrests. Recent PSUV party maneuvers elevating Rodríguez, alongside suppressed dissent and stalled international mediation, reinforce regime continuity bets, though oil prices and 2025 diplomacy loom as catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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