Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low near-term probability of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer departing office, reflecting his grip on Labour leadership despite mounting pressures. Recent drivers include Labour's poll slump to around 25% amid backlash to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' October budget, which imposed austerity measures like winter fuel payment cuts, prompting 49 MPs to rebel on a welfare bill amendment. Internal dissent has grown, but no formal no-confidence motion has emerged, and Starmer retains key allies. Upcoming local elections in May 2025 and potential by-elections could amplify volatility if Reform UK gains further traction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$9,959,598 Vol.
31 de marzo
2%
30 de abril
8%
30 de junio
45%
31 de diciembre
69%
$9,959,598 Vol.
31 de marzo
2%
30 de abril
8%
30 de junio
45%
31 de diciembre
69%
An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado abierto: Sep 14, 2025, 5:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low near-term probability of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer departing office, reflecting his grip on Labour leadership despite mounting pressures. Recent drivers include Labour's poll slump to around 25% amid backlash to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' October budget, which imposed austerity measures like winter fuel payment cuts, prompting 49 MPs to rebel on a welfare bill amendment. Internal dissent has grown, but no formal no-confidence motion has emerged, and Starmer retains key allies. Upcoming local elections in May 2025 and potential by-elections could amplify volatility if Reform UK gains further traction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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