The next UK general election must occur by mid-August 2029 at the latest under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act, though the prime minister holds discretion to call one earlier. Andy Burnham’s Labour government, which took power in mid-2026 following Keir Starmer’s resignation, shows no signs of triggering a snap vote, with attention instead centered on the autumn budget, Reform UK’s funding controversies, and local issues. Recent by-elections and opinion trends have not created urgent pressure for an immediate contest. Traders therefore assign low implied probabilities to a call by late 2025 or mid-2026, consistent with historical patterns where governing parties with workable majorities typically run closer to the full term unless economic or polling conditions deteriorate sharply. Upcoming local and mayoral contests in 2027 could provide the next clear read on voter sentiment.