Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee to hold the repo rate steady at 6.50% in its April 7-9 meeting, driven by persistently elevated CPI inflation at 5.1% in February—above the 4% target midpoint—amid sticky food and core pressures. The 24.5% odds for a 25-basis-point cut reflect hopes from robust GDP growth above 7% and global monetary easing, including the US Federal Reserve's recent rate reductions, though offset by rupee stability needs. A 19.9% chance of a hike stems from upside inflation risks, but recent MPC minutes emphasized data-dependent caution. Upcoming March CPI data, due April 12, could sway positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoSin cambios 59%
Incrementar 23.6%
Disminuir 5%
Disminuir
24%
Sin cambios
59%
Incrementar
18%
Sin cambios 59%
Incrementar 23.6%
Disminuir 5%
Disminuir
24%
Sin cambios
59%
Incrementar
18%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of India after its meeting scheduled for April 8, 2026.
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy statement for their April 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. The statement will be made available here: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx. If no decision on the policy repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 6, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee to hold the repo rate steady at 6.50% in its April 7-9 meeting, driven by persistently elevated CPI inflation at 5.1% in February—above the 4% target midpoint—amid sticky food and core pressures. The 24.5% odds for a 25-basis-point cut reflect hopes from robust GDP growth above 7% and global monetary easing, including the US Federal Reserve's recent rate reductions, though offset by rupee stability needs. A 19.9% chance of a hike stems from upside inflation risks, but recent MPC minutes emphasized data-dependent caution. Upcoming March CPI data, due April 12, could sway positioning ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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