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Clima Y Ciencia·Pandemias

¿Casos de sarampión en EE. UU. en 2026?

Market icon
Clima Y Ciencia·Pandemias

¿Casos de sarampión en EE. UU. en 2026?

abr 30

dic 31

abr 30

dic 31

Polymarket

$7,501,352 Vol.

Polymarket

$7,501,352 Vol.

↑2k

$36,031 Vol.

99%

↑3k

$27,525 Vol.

88%

↑4k

$131,712 Vol.

68%

↑5k

$187,699 Vol.

49%

↑7,5k

$153,662 Vol.

22%

↑10k

$6,473,612 Vol.

14%

↑12.5k

$316,358 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of April 2, 2026, the CDC reports 1,671 confirmed measles cases in the United States, with 1,661 among residents across 33 jurisdictions and 94% outbreak-associated, including 91 hospitalizations but no deaths. Over 92% of cases occurred in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals, amid kindergarten MMR vaccination coverage of 92.5%—below the 95% herd immunity threshold—exacerbated by declining rates post-2019. Major outbreaks persist in South Carolina (over 1,000 season cases), Texas, and Utah, fueled by global surges increasing import risk via international travel. With eight months left in 2026, trader consensus reflects sustained transmission potential in under-vaccinated communities; watch weekly CDC updates and state surveillance for escalation or containment signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volumen
$7,501,352
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 1:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of April 2, 2026, the CDC reports 1,671 confirmed measles cases in the United States, with 1,661 among residents across 33 jurisdictions and 94% outbreak-associated, including 91 hospitalizations but no deaths. Over 92% of cases occurred in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals, amid kindergarten MMR vaccination coverage of 92.5%—below the 95% herd immunity threshold—exacerbated by declining rates post-2019. Major outbreaks persist in South Carolina (over 1,000 season cases), Texas, and Utah, fueled by global surges increasing import risk via international travel. With eight months left in 2026, trader consensus reflects sustained transmission potential in under-vaccinated communities; watch weekly CDC updates and state surveillance for escalation or containment signals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volumen
$7,501,352
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Jan 23, 2026, 1:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Casos de sarampión en EE. UU. en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "↑500" con 100%, seguido de "↑1k" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Casos de sarampión en EE. UU. en 2026?" ha generado $7.5 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 1, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Casos de sarampión en EE. UU. en 2026?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Casos de sarampión en EE. UU. en 2026?" es "↑500" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "↑1k" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Casos de sarampión en EE. UU. en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.