Recent El Niño onset, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.81°C by early June 2026 and expected strengthening, is the dominant short-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a 1.15–1.19°C June global mean anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This aligns with WMO multi-model guidance projecting 2026 annual means within 1.3–1.9°C and ongoing background anthropogenic warming that has kept recent months near record levels. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year gave way to rapid Pacific warming and coupled atmospheric responses, increasing confidence that June will exceed 1.10°C while making substantially higher bins (>1.20°C) less probable absent extreme model runs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 64%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 4.5%
$12,017 Vol.
$12,017 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
64%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 64%
1.10–1.14ºC 20%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 4.5%
$12,017 Vol.
$12,017 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$389 Vol.
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,224 Vol.
20%
1.15–1.19ºC
$191 Vol.
64%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,311 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,615 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,301 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño onset, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.81°C by early June 2026 and expected strengthening, is the dominant short-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a 1.15–1.19°C June global mean anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This aligns with WMO multi-model guidance projecting 2026 annual means within 1.3–1.9°C and ongoing background anthropogenic warming that has kept recent months near record levels. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year gave way to rapid Pacific warming and coupled atmospheric responses, increasing confidence that June will exceed 1.10°C while making substantially higher bins (>1.20°C) less probable absent extreme model runs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$12,017Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño onset, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.81°C by early June 2026 and expected strengthening, is the dominant short-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a 1.15–1.19°C June global mean anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This aligns with WMO multi-model guidance projecting 2026 annual means within 1.3–1.9°C and ongoing background anthropogenic warming that has kept recent months near record levels. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year gave way to rapid Pacific warming and coupled atmospheric responses, increasing confidence that June will exceed 1.10°C while making substantially higher bins (>1.20°C) less probable absent extreme model runs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$12,017Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño onset, with Niño-3.4 SST anomalies reaching +0.7 to +0.81°C by early June 2026 and expected strengthening, is the dominant short-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a 1.15–1.19°C June global mean anomaly above the 1850–1900 baseline. This aligns with WMO multi-model guidance projecting 2026 annual means within 1.3–1.9°C and ongoing background anthropogenic warming that has kept recent months near record levels. ENSO-neutral conditions earlier in the year gave way to rapid Pacific warming and coupled atmospheric responses, increasing confidence that June will exceed 1.10°C while making substantially higher bins (>1.20°C) less probable absent extreme model runs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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