Market icon

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 29

Mar 30

Apr 1

Apr 2

39°F or below 32%

58°F or higher 26%

54-55°F 19%

42-43°F 16%

Polymarket
NEW

39°F or below 32%

58°F or higher 26%

54-55°F 19%

42-43°F 16%

Polymarket
NEW

39°F or below

$0 Vol.

32%

40-41°F

$0 Vol.

13%

42-43°F

$1 Vol.

16%

44-45°F

$0 Vol.

10%

46-47°F

$0 Vol.

9%

48-49°F

$8 Vol.

14%

50-51°F

$0 Vol.

11%

52-53°F

$0 Vol.

12%

54-55°F

$81 Vol.

19%

56-57°F

$5 Vol.

9%

58°F or higher

$23 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 39°F or below at 46% implied probability for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, reflecting National Weather Service GFS and ECMWF model ensembles centering outcomes around 40-55°F—well below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—due to persistent cold air advection behind recent frontal passages. Over the past 48 hours, strong cold fronts sweeping the Midwest have reinforced an upper-level trough pattern, limiting peak heating with cloudy skies and potential lake-influenced moderation from Lake Michigan. Historical April 3 variability supports cool outliers, though uncertainty remains in exact clearing and diurnal warming; watch NOAA's 00Z/12Z model runs and NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for shifts ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus favors 39°F or below at 46% implied probability for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, reflecting National Weather Service GFS and ECMWF model ensembles centering outcomes around 40-55°F—well below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—due to persistent cold air advection behind recent frontal passages. Over the past 48 hours, strong cold fronts sweeping the Midwest have reinforced an upper-level trough pattern, limiting peak heating with cloudy skies and potential lake-influenced moderation from Lake Michigan. Historical April 3 variability supports cool outliers, though uncertainty remains in exact clearing and diurnal warming; watch NOAA's 00Z/12Z model runs and NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for shifts ahead of resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus favors 39°F or below at 46% implied probability for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, reflecting National Weather Service GFS and ECMWF model ensembles centering outcomes around 40-55°F—well below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—due to persistent cold air advection behind recent frontal passages. Over the past 48 hours, strong cold fronts sweeping the Midwest have reinforced an upper-level trough pattern, limiting peak heating with cloudy skies and potential lake-influenced moderation from Lake Michigan. Historical April 3 variability supports cool outliers, though uncertainty remains in exact clearing and diurnal warming; watch NOAA's 00Z/12Z model runs and NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for shifts ahead of resolution.

Trader consensus favors 39°F or below at 46% implied probability for Chicago's highest temperature on April 3, reflecting National Weather Service GFS and ECMWF model ensembles centering outcomes around 40-55°F—well below the 54°F climatological normal at O'Hare International Airport—due to persistent cold air advection behind recent frontal passages. Over the past 48 hours, strong cold fronts sweeping the Midwest have reinforced an upper-level trough pattern, limiting peak heating with cloudy skies and potential lake-influenced moderation from Lake Michigan. Historical April 3 variability supports cool outliers, though uncertainty remains in exact clearing and diurnal warming; watch NOAA's 00Z/12Z model runs and NWS Chicago's afternoon forecast discussion for shifts ahead of resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "39°F or below" con 32%, seguido de "54-55°F" con 19%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 32¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 32% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 29, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" es "39°F or below" con 32%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 32% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "54-55°F" con 19%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in Chicago on April 3?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.