Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the fed funds rate steady amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, while March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, keeping unemployment at 4.3%—data signaling insufficient cooling to justify a 25 basis point cut despite the dot plot's median projection of one reduction later in 2026 to 3.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil price spikes, have elevated hike risks to 4.1% combined. Consensus could shift if April 10 CPI undershoots or further labor softening emerges, prompting earlier easing bets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
¿Decisión de la Fed en junio?
Sin cambios 91%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,415,741 Vol.
$5,415,741 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
6%
Sin cambios
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Sin cambios 91%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos 6%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 3.4%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$5,415,741 Vol.
$5,415,741 Vol.
17 jun 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,581,918 Vol.
1%
Disminución de 25 puntos básicos
$738,996 Vol.
6%
Sin cambios
$1,121,736 Vol.
91%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$1,080,608 Vol.
3%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$892,482 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the fed funds rate steady amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, while March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, keeping unemployment at 4.3%—data signaling insufficient cooling to justify a 25 basis point cut despite the dot plot's median projection of one reduction later in 2026 to 3.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil price spikes, have elevated hike risks to 4.1% combined. Consensus could shift if April 10 CPI undershoots or further labor softening emerges, prompting earlier easing bets.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$5,415,741Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the fed funds rate steady amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, while March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, keeping unemployment at 4.3%—data signaling insufficient cooling to justify a 25 basis point cut despite the dot plot's median projection of one reduction later in 2026 to 3.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil price spikes, have elevated hike risks to 4.1% combined. Consensus could shift if April 10 CPI undershoots or further labor softening emerges, prompting earlier easing bets.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$5,415,741Fecha de finalización
17 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 90.5% implied probability of no change at the June 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the fed funds rate steady amid sticky inflation and resilient labor conditions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, while March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, keeping unemployment at 4.3%—data signaling insufficient cooling to justify a 25 basis point cut despite the dot plot's median projection of one reduction later in 2026 to 3.4%. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related oil price spikes, have elevated hike risks to 4.1% combined. Consensus could shift if April 10 CPI undershoots or further labor softening emerges, prompting earlier easing bets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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