Market icon

¿El 1, 2 y 3 de enero de 2026 más caluroso registrado?

Market icon

¿El 1, 2 y 3 de enero de 2026 más caluroso registrado?

Cuarto o inferior 100.0%

El más caluroso <1%

Segundo más caluroso <1%

Tercero más caluroso <1%

Polymarket

$480,777 Vol.

Cuarto o inferior 100.0%

El más caluroso <1%

Segundo más caluroso <1%

Tercero más caluroso <1%

Polymarket

$480,777 Vol.

El más caluroso

$80,839 Vol.

No

Segundo más caluroso

$69,434 Vol.

No

Tercero más caluroso

$161,978 Vol.

No

Cuarto o inferior

$168,527 Vol.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 versus the data points available for all other Januaries on record.

Note: If January 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$480,777
Fecha de finalización
Feb 10, 2026
Creado en
Dec 29, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 versus the data points available for all other Januaries on record. Note: If January 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿El 1, 2 y 3 de enero de 2026 más caluroso registrado?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cuarto o inferior" at 100%, followed by "El más caluroso" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿El 1, 2 y 3 de enero de 2026 más caluroso registrado?" has generated $480.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿El 1, 2 y 3 de enero de 2026 más caluroso registrado?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿El 1, 2 y 3 de enero de 2026 más caluroso registrado?" is "Cuarto o inferior" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "El más caluroso" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿El 1, 2 y 3 de enero de 2026 más caluroso registrado?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.