Spain holds a narrow trader consensus edge at 16.3% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph and a convincing 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last weekend, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Pedri's growing influence amid a settled squad post-qualifiers. France (12.5%) and England (12.3%) trail closely after France's sharp 3-1 friendly victory against Colombia and England's resilient 1-1 draw versus Uruguay, highlighting Mbappé's form and Southgate's depth in a tightly grouped field. The race remains competitive due to the expanded 48-team format, favorable group draws avoiding early clashes among elites (e.g., Spain-Argentina only possible in final), and parity from recent UEFA/CONMEBOL qualifiers where all top contenders advanced convincingly, with playoffs now finalized adding Sweden, Bosnia, Czechia, and Turkey to heighten unpredictability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.3%
Francia 12.6%
Inglaterra 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$453,288,405 Vol.
$453,288,405 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
13%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 16.3%
Francia 12.6%
Inglaterra 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$453,288,405 Vol.
$453,288,405 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
13%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow trader consensus edge at 16.3% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their dominant Euro 2024 triumph and a convincing 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last weekend, showcasing Lamine Yamal and Pedri's growing influence amid a settled squad post-qualifiers. France (12.5%) and England (12.3%) trail closely after France's sharp 3-1 friendly victory against Colombia and England's resilient 1-1 draw versus Uruguay, highlighting Mbappé's form and Southgate's depth in a tightly grouped field. The race remains competitive due to the expanded 48-team format, favorable group draws avoiding early clashes among elites (e.g., Spain-Argentina only possible in final), and parity from recent UEFA/CONMEBOL qualifiers where all top contenders advanced convincingly, with playoffs now finalized adding Sweden, Bosnia, Czechia, and Turkey to heighten unpredictability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes