Spain edges trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and sharp recent form, including a 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week, leveraging Euro 2024 champions' momentum with stars like Yamal and Rodri in peak condition. France (12.8%) and England (12.4%) trail closely after securing qualification amid tough playoff paths, their depth in attack offset by challenging group draws featuring Senegal and Norway for Les Bleus. The bunched top outcomes reflect parity in the expanded 48-team field post-final draw, where balanced groups, South American resilience from Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.6%), and Portugal's Ronaldo-led experience keep the race wide-open, with no clear path to the final amid cross-continental travel and heat factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.4%
Francia 12.8%
Inglaterra 12.4%
Argentina 9.3%
$451,857,186 Vol.
$451,857,186 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
13%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 16.4%
Francia 12.8%
Inglaterra 12.4%
Argentina 9.3%
$451,857,186 Vol.
$451,857,186 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
13%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain edges trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their dominant UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and sharp recent form, including a 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week, leveraging Euro 2024 champions' momentum with stars like Yamal and Rodri in peak condition. France (12.8%) and England (12.4%) trail closely after securing qualification amid tough playoff paths, their depth in attack offset by challenging group draws featuring Senegal and Norway for Les Bleus. The bunched top outcomes reflect parity in the expanded 48-team field post-final draw, where balanced groups, South American resilience from Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.6%), and Portugal's Ronaldo-led experience keep the race wide-open, with no clear path to the final amid cross-continental travel and heat factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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