Spain leads trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, a 31-match unbeaten streak (25 wins, 6 draws), and unmatched squad depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and Nico Williams under Luis de la Fuente. March qualifiers concluded with Spain topping Group E for direct qualification alongside France, England, and others, solidifying their momentum amid FIFA president Gianni Infantino naming them favorites. Yet France (12.4%), England (12.3%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%) remain tightly bunched due to star power (Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, Vinícius Jr.), recent qualifier dominance, and the expanded 48-team format's knockout volatility, keeping the race wide-open two months out.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.4%
Francia 12.4%
Inglaterra 12.3%
Argentina 9.3%
$453,015,198 Vol.
$453,015,198 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
12%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 16.4%
Francia 12.4%
Inglaterra 12.3%
Argentina 9.3%
$453,015,198 Vol.
$453,015,198 Vol.
España
16%
Francia
12%
Inglaterra
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, a 31-match unbeaten streak (25 wins, 6 draws), and unmatched squad depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and Nico Williams under Luis de la Fuente. March qualifiers concluded with Spain topping Group E for direct qualification alongside France, England, and others, solidifying their momentum amid FIFA president Gianni Infantino naming them favorites. Yet France (12.4%), England (12.3%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%) remain tightly bunched due to star power (Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, Vinícius Jr.), recent qualifier dominance, and the expanded 48-team format's knockout volatility, keeping the race wide-open two months out.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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