Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.3% implied probability, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, unmatched midfield depth with Rodri, Pedri, and Yamal's emergence, plus flawless qualification campaign. Yet the race stays tightly contested—England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) boast explosive attacks led by Kane, Mbappé, and Dembélé, while defending champions Argentina (9.4%) rely on Messi's experience amid returning injured players like key defenders. Brazil (8.8%) slipped after Rodrygo's ACL tear ruled him out, but their talent pool endures. March qualifiers' playoffs concluded without top-tier shocks, underscoring the 48-team format's knockout volatility and elite European/South American parity keeping odds bunched.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoEspaña 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$449,685,256 Vol.
$449,685,256 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
España 16.3%
Inglaterra 12.6%
Francia 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$449,685,256 Vol.
$449,685,256 Vol.
España
16%
Inglaterra
13%
Francia
12%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Portugal
7%
Alemania
5%
Título del grupo: Países Bajos
3%
Noruega
3%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Título del ítem del grupo: Japón
2%
USA
2%
Marruecos
2%
Suiza
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croacia
1%
México
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Suecia
1%
Canadá
1%
Austria
1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Título del ítem del grupo: Escocia
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Irán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 16.3% implied probability, fueled by their Euro 2024 triumph, unmatched midfield depth with Rodri, Pedri, and Yamal's emergence, plus flawless qualification campaign. Yet the race stays tightly contested—England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) boast explosive attacks led by Kane, Mbappé, and Dembélé, while defending champions Argentina (9.4%) rely on Messi's experience amid returning injured players like key defenders. Brazil (8.8%) slipped after Rodrygo's ACL tear ruled him out, but their talent pool endures. March qualifiers' playoffs concluded without top-tier shocks, underscoring the 48-team format's knockout volatility and elite European/South American parity keeping odds bunched.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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