Trader consensus heavily favors Europe at 68.5% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by the qualification of 12 powerhouses including Spain, France, England, Germany, Portugal, Netherlands, and recent UEFA play-off successes like Italy's 2-0 win over Northern Ireland and Czechia's penalty shootout victory against Ireland on March 26, bolstering continental depth. South America's 23.5% reflects CONMEBOL standouts Argentina (defending champions), Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay securing direct spots, with Bolivia advancing to inter-confederation play-offs. Lower odds for Africa (3.5%), North America (2.5% including hosts USA, Canada, Mexico, Curaçao), Asia (2%), and Oceania (0.4%) stem from fewer elite contenders and historical barriers, despite DR Congo's African play-off berth and ongoing finals like Jamaica vs. New Caledonia.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEuropa 69%
Südamerika 24%
Afrika 3.5%
Nordamerika 2.5%
$1,499,170 Vol.
$1,499,170 Vol.
Europa
69%
Südamerika
24%
Afrika
4%
Nordamerika
2%
Asien
2%
Ozeanien
<1%
Europa 69%
Südamerika 24%
Afrika 3.5%
Nordamerika 2.5%
$1,499,170 Vol.
$1,499,170 Vol.
Europa
69%
Südamerika
24%
Afrika
4%
Nordamerika
2%
Asien
2%
Ozeanien
<1%
For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 8, 2025, 3:32 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Europe at 68.5% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by the qualification of 12 powerhouses including Spain, France, England, Germany, Portugal, Netherlands, and recent UEFA play-off successes like Italy's 2-0 win over Northern Ireland and Czechia's penalty shootout victory against Ireland on March 26, bolstering continental depth. South America's 23.5% reflects CONMEBOL standouts Argentina (defending champions), Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Ecuador, and Paraguay securing direct spots, with Bolivia advancing to inter-confederation play-offs. Lower odds for Africa (3.5%), North America (2.5% including hosts USA, Canada, Mexico, Curaçao), Asia (2%), and Oceania (0.4%) stem from fewer elite contenders and historical barriers, despite DR Congo's African play-off berth and ongoing finals like Jamaica vs. New Caledonia.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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