Spain's commanding Euro 2024 victory, blending youth like Lamine Yamal with midfield mastery, vaults them to 15.3% implied probability as top trader pick for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, yet England (13.2%), Argentina (10.9%), and France (10.5%) trail closely due to their own recent finals runs in Euros and Copa America. This bunched field underscores parity from Europe's depth, South America's firepower—despite Brazil's (8.7%) Copa stumbles—and an expanded 48-team format favoring upsets. Ongoing confederation qualifiers, aging stars like Messi (39 by tournament time), and North American hosting add volatility, embodying the wisdom of crowds in a market wide open two years out.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertSpanien 15.3%
England 13.1%
Argentinien 10.9%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 10.6%
$349,918,609 Vol.
$349,918,609 Vol.

Spanien
15%

England
13%

Argentinien
11%

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%

Brasilien
9%

Portugal
7%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
3%

Italien
2%

Belgien
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Kolumbien
2%

Japan
1%

Uruguay
1%

Kroatien
1%

Mexiko
1%

Ecuador
1%

Schweiz
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Kanada
1%

Österreich
1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Australien
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

Katar
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Iran
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
Spanien 15.3%
England 13.1%
Argentinien 10.9%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich 10.6%
$349,918,609 Vol.
$349,918,609 Vol.

Spanien
15%

England
13%

Argentinien
11%

Gruppen-Element-Titel: Frankreich
11%

Brasilien
9%

Portugal
7%

Deutschland
5%

Niederlande
3%

Norwegen
3%

Italien
2%

Belgien
2%

USA
2%

Marokko
2%

Kolumbien
2%

Japan
1%

Uruguay
1%

Kroatien
1%

Mexiko
1%

Ecuador
1%

Schweiz
1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Senegal
1%

Kanada
1%

Österreich
1%

Südkorea
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Paraguay
<1%

Elfenbeinküste
<1%

Schottland
<1%

Australien
<1%

Ägypten
<1%

Ghana
<1%

Algerien
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Tunesien
<1%

Südafrika
<1%

Katar
<1%

Saudi-Arabien
<1%

Neuseeland
<1%

Haiti
<1%

Jordanien
<1%

Curaçao
<1%

Iran
<1%

Usbekistan
<1%

Gruppenelement-Titel: Kap Verde
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Abwickler
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's commanding Euro 2024 victory, blending youth like Lamine Yamal with midfield mastery, vaults them to 15.3% implied probability as top trader pick for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, yet England (13.2%), Argentina (10.9%), and France (10.5%) trail closely due to their own recent finals runs in Euros and Copa America. This bunched field underscores parity from Europe's depth, South America's firepower—despite Brazil's (8.7%) Copa stumbles—and an expanded 48-team format favoring upsets. Ongoing confederation qualifiers, aging stars like Messi (39 by tournament time), and North American hosting add volatility, embodying the wisdom of crowds in a market wide open two years out.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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