Michigan and Arizona lead as co-favorites at 34.5% and 33.8% implied probabilities after both No. 1 seeds delivered dominant Elite Eight performances—Michoigan steamrolling Tennessee for its first Final Four since 2018, and Arizona toppling Purdue to cap a historic run against red-hot opponents—setting up a razor-thin semifinal clash where Michigan holds a slim 1.5-point edge per trader consensus. Illinois punched its first Final Four ticket with a 71-59 frontcourt clinic over Iowa, building on double-digit tournament margins, while UConn's 73-72 buzzer-beater by Braylon Mullins over Duke with 0.4 seconds left injects massive momentum despite longer odds at 13.6%. The bunched top probabilities reflect evenly matched semifinal paths, deep rosters, and March Madness unpredictability in Indianapolis.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMichigan 35%
Arizona 33.8%
Illinois 16.8%
Connecticut 13.5%
$23,725,726 Vol.
$23,725,726 Vol.
Michigan
35%
Arizona
34%
Illinois
17%
Connecticut
14%
Michigan 35%
Arizona 33.8%
Illinois 16.8%
Connecticut 13.5%
$23,725,726 Vol.
$23,725,726 Vol.
Michigan
35%
Arizona
34%
Illinois
17%
Connecticut
14%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan and Arizona lead as co-favorites at 34.5% and 33.8% implied probabilities after both No. 1 seeds delivered dominant Elite Eight performances—Michoigan steamrolling Tennessee for its first Final Four since 2018, and Arizona toppling Purdue to cap a historic run against red-hot opponents—setting up a razor-thin semifinal clash where Michigan holds a slim 1.5-point edge per trader consensus. Illinois punched its first Final Four ticket with a 71-59 frontcourt clinic over Iowa, building on double-digit tournament margins, while UConn's 73-72 buzzer-beater by Braylon Mullins over Duke with 0.4 seconds left injects massive momentum despite longer odds at 13.6%. The bunched top probabilities reflect evenly matched semifinal paths, deep rosters, and March Madness unpredictability in Indianapolis.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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