Polymarket traders are pricing a 65% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing above 5,300 by March 31, driven primarily by cooling inflation data from February CPI (2.8% YoY) and the Federal Reserve's March 20 FOMC decision to hold rates steady while signaling three 2024 cuts via updated dot plot. Current SPX levels near 5,250 reflect tech sector strength, particularly Nvidia's post-earnings surge, amid $6.5 trillion market cap gains YTD. Key risks include upcoming PCE inflation release on March 29 and Q1 GDP advance estimate March 28; a hotter-than-expected print could trigger volatility, pressuring odds below 5,200 where 25% probability clusters. Historical March seasonality favors gains, but trader consensus hedges recession fears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$562,812 Vol.
↑ 8.000 $
<1%
↑ $7.500
<1%
↑ $7.300
<1%
↑ $7.200
<1%
↑ 7.100 $
1%
↑ $7.000
2%
↑ $6.900
4%
↓ $6.400
35%
↓ $6.300
17%
↓ $6.200
13%
↓ $6.000
3%
↓ $5.000
<1%
$562,812 Vol.
↑ 8.000 $
<1%
↑ $7.500
<1%
↑ $7.300
<1%
↑ $7.200
<1%
↑ 7.100 $
1%
↑ $7.000
2%
↑ $6.900
4%
↓ $6.400
35%
↓ $6.300
17%
↓ $6.200
13%
↓ $6.000
3%
↓ $5.000
<1%
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 2:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Ja
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Ja
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a 65% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing above 5,300 by March 31, driven primarily by cooling inflation data from February CPI (2.8% YoY) and the Federal Reserve's March 20 FOMC decision to hold rates steady while signaling three 2024 cuts via updated dot plot. Current SPX levels near 5,250 reflect tech sector strength, particularly Nvidia's post-earnings surge, amid $6.5 trillion market cap gains YTD. Key risks include upcoming PCE inflation release on March 29 and Q1 GDP advance estimate March 28; a hotter-than-expected print could trigger volatility, pressuring odds below 5,200 where 25% probability clusters. Historical March seasonality favors gains, but trader consensus hedges recession fears.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen