Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China of 5–15% on March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% on most Chinese imports under the Section 122 global tariff imposed via executive order, as confirmed in recent trackers from Wharton (10.3% through January, stable into March) and Yale Budget Lab (10.5% as of March 9). No executive actions, USTR announcements, or Section 301 adjustments in the past 30 days have shifted this baseline, amid ongoing trade tensions including China's probes into U.S. practices. President Trump's scheduled visit to China starting March 31 adds minor uncertainty, but traders price in continuity absent last-minute orders; a sudden escalation via IEEPA tariffs or deal announcements could challenge this, though procedural timelines make it unlikely before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert10
5–15 % 97.5%
15–25 % 2.1%
25–35 % <1%
<5% <1%
$1,156,687 Vol.
$1,156,687 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15 %
98%
15–25 %
2%
25–35 %
<1%
35 %+
<1%
5–15 % 97.5%
15–25 % 2.1%
25–35 % <1%
<5% <1%
$1,156,687 Vol.
$1,156,687 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$87,813 Vol.
<1%
5–15 %
$263,117 Vol.
98%
15–25 %
$537,368 Vol.
2%
25–35 %
$146,310 Vol.
<1%
35 %+
$122,079 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China of 5–15% on March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% on most Chinese imports under the Section 122 global tariff imposed via executive order, as confirmed in recent trackers from Wharton (10.3% through January, stable into March) and Yale Budget Lab (10.5% as of March 9). No executive actions, USTR announcements, or Section 301 adjustments in the past 30 days have shifted this baseline, amid ongoing trade tensions including China's probes into U.S. practices. President Trump's scheduled visit to China starting March 31 adds minor uncertainty, but traders price in continuity absent last-minute orders; a sudden escalation via IEEPA tariffs or deal announcements could challenge this, though procedural timelines make it unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$1,156,687Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China of 5–15% on March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% on most Chinese imports under the Section 122 global tariff imposed via executive order, as confirmed in recent trackers from Wharton (10.3% through January, stable into March) and Yale Budget Lab (10.5% as of March 9). No executive actions, USTR announcements, or Section 301 adjustments in the past 30 days have shifted this baseline, amid ongoing trade tensions including China's probes into U.S. practices. President Trump's scheduled visit to China starting March 31 adds minor uncertainty, but traders price in continuity absent last-minute orders; a sudden escalation via IEEPA tariffs or deal announcements could challenge this, though procedural timelines make it unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$1,156,687Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China of 5–15% on March 31, reflecting the effective rate of approximately 10% on most Chinese imports under the Section 122 global tariff imposed via executive order, as confirmed in recent trackers from Wharton (10.3% through January, stable into March) and Yale Budget Lab (10.5% as of March 9). No executive actions, USTR announcements, or Section 301 adjustments in the past 30 days have shifted this baseline, amid ongoing trade tensions including China's probes into U.S. practices. President Trump's scheduled visit to China starting March 31 adds minor uncertainty, but traders price in continuity absent last-minute orders; a sudden escalation via IEEPA tariffs or deal announcements could challenge this, though procedural timelines make it unlikely before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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