Recent monthly goods and services deficits have averaged near $58–60 billion, with year-to-date 2026 figures showing a sharp 55% narrowing from the same period in 2025 as imports fell and exports rose. This shift stems primarily from tariffs implemented beginning in early 2025, which raised the cost of many imported goods and redirected trade flows. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through the remainder of the decade under current policy, with imports growing more slowly than exports. Traders therefore place the highest probability on an annual 2026 outcome in the $800–900 billion range, followed by $900 billion–$1 trillion, reflecting the ongoing effects of these trade measures amid stable domestic demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$21,010 Vol.
$21,010 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
7%
500–600 Mrd.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
4%
700–800 Mrd.
9%
800–900 Mrd.
46%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
32%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
9%
1,1+ Billionen
5%
$21,010 Vol.
$21,010 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
<500 Mrd.
$16,638 Vol.
7%
500–600 Mrd.
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700 Mrd.
$435 Vol.
4%
700–800 Mrd.
$456 Vol.
9%
800–900 Mrd.
$1,008 Vol.
46%
900 Mrd.–1 Bio.
$979 Vol.
32%
1 Bio.–1,1 Bio.
$447 Vol.
9%
1,1+ Billionen
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly goods and services deficits have averaged near $58–60 billion, with year-to-date 2026 figures showing a sharp 55% narrowing from the same period in 2025 as imports fell and exports rose. This shift stems primarily from tariffs implemented beginning in early 2025, which raised the cost of many imported goods and redirected trade flows. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through the remainder of the decade under current policy, with imports growing more slowly than exports. Traders therefore place the highest probability on an annual 2026 outcome in the $800–900 billion range, followed by $900 billion–$1 trillion, reflecting the ongoing effects of these trade measures amid stable domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,010Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly goods and services deficits have averaged near $58–60 billion, with year-to-date 2026 figures showing a sharp 55% narrowing from the same period in 2025 as imports fell and exports rose. This shift stems primarily from tariffs implemented beginning in early 2025, which raised the cost of many imported goods and redirected trade flows. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through the remainder of the decade under current policy, with imports growing more slowly than exports. Traders therefore place the highest probability on an annual 2026 outcome in the $800–900 billion range, followed by $900 billion–$1 trillion, reflecting the ongoing effects of these trade measures amid stable domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,010Enddatum
28. Feb. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly goods and services deficits have averaged near $58–60 billion, with year-to-date 2026 figures showing a sharp 55% narrowing from the same period in 2025 as imports fell and exports rose. This shift stems primarily from tariffs implemented beginning in early 2025, which raised the cost of many imported goods and redirected trade flows. CBO projections indicate the annual deficit will continue declining as a share of GDP through the remainder of the decade under current policy, with imports growing more slowly than exports. Traders therefore place the highest probability on an annual 2026 outcome in the $800–900 billion range, followed by $900 billion–$1 trillion, reflecting the ongoing effects of these trade measures amid stable domestic demand.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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