Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability to a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by President Trump's February 20 executive order imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 on most Chinese imports, which remains in effect without escalation. USTR tariff trackers as of March 20 confirm reciprocal rates at 10%, with planned increases from 10% to 34% suspended until November amid trade truce extensions. China's March 17 warnings against further hikes have elicited no U.S. response. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order, court injunction on tariff authority, or bilateral deal altering rates before resolution, though institutional timelines and market stability make shifts unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert10
5–15 % 97.4%
15–25 % 2.1%
25–35 % <1%
<5% <1%
$1,137,935 Vol.
$1,137,935 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15 %
97%
15–25 %
2%
25–35 %
<1%
35 %+
<1%
5–15 % 97.4%
15–25 % 2.1%
25–35 % <1%
<5% <1%
$1,137,935 Vol.
$1,137,935 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$79,610 Vol.
<1%
5–15 %
$258,968 Vol.
97%
15–25 %
$535,016 Vol.
2%
25–35 %
$144,536 Vol.
<1%
35 %+
$119,805 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability to a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by President Trump's February 20 executive order imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 on most Chinese imports, which remains in effect without escalation. USTR tariff trackers as of March 20 confirm reciprocal rates at 10%, with planned increases from 10% to 34% suspended until November amid trade truce extensions. China's March 17 warnings against further hikes have elicited no U.S. response. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order, court injunction on tariff authority, or bilateral deal altering rates before resolution, though institutional timelines and market stability make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$1,137,935Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability to a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by President Trump's February 20 executive order imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 on most Chinese imports, which remains in effect without escalation. USTR tariff trackers as of March 20 confirm reciprocal rates at 10%, with planned increases from 10% to 34% suspended until November amid trade truce extensions. China's March 17 warnings against further hikes have elicited no U.S. response. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order, court injunction on tariff authority, or bilateral deal altering rates before resolution, though institutional timelines and market stability make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$1,137,935Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 97.5% implied probability to a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by President Trump's February 20 executive order imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 on most Chinese imports, which remains in effect without escalation. USTR tariff trackers as of March 20 confirm reciprocal rates at 10%, with planned increases from 10% to 34% suspended until November amid trade truce extensions. China's March 17 warnings against further hikes have elicited no U.S. response. Realistic challenges include an abrupt executive order, court injunction on tariff authority, or bilateral deal altering rates before resolution, though institutional timelines and market stability make shifts unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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