Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.5%, driven by President Trump's February 20, 2026, proclamation imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 after a Supreme Court ruling struck down prior higher duties on Chinese goods. This temporary 150-day measure, confirmed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as entering force without escalation, reset effective rates to this range amid de-escalation from earlier 2025 peaks of 125%. No fresh announcements or court actions have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though last-minute bilateral trade talks, new USTR probes, or Chinese retaliation could theoretically shift odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert10
5–15 % 96.6%
15–25 % 2.3%
25–35 % <1%
<5% <1%
$1,153,037 Vol.
$1,153,037 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15 %
97%
15–25 %
2%
25–35 %
<1%
35 %+
<1%
5–15 % 96.6%
15–25 % 2.3%
25–35 % <1%
<5% <1%
$1,153,037 Vol.
$1,153,037 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$85,975 Vol.
<1%
5–15 %
$262,898 Vol.
97%
15–25 %
$537,012 Vol.
2%
25–35 %
$145,964 Vol.
<1%
35 %+
$121,188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.5%, driven by President Trump's February 20, 2026, proclamation imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 after a Supreme Court ruling struck down prior higher duties on Chinese goods. This temporary 150-day measure, confirmed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as entering force without escalation, reset effective rates to this range amid de-escalation from earlier 2025 peaks of 125%. No fresh announcements or court actions have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though last-minute bilateral trade talks, new USTR probes, or Chinese retaliation could theoretically shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$1,153,037Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.5%, driven by President Trump's February 20, 2026, proclamation imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 after a Supreme Court ruling struck down prior higher duties on Chinese goods. This temporary 150-day measure, confirmed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as entering force without escalation, reset effective rates to this range amid de-escalation from earlier 2025 peaks of 125%. No fresh announcements or court actions have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though last-minute bilateral trade talks, new USTR probes, or Chinese retaliation could theoretically shift odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volumen
$1,153,037Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31 at 96.5%, driven by President Trump's February 20, 2026, proclamation imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 after a Supreme Court ruling struck down prior higher duties on Chinese goods. This temporary 150-day measure, confirmed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as entering force without escalation, reset effective rates to this range amid de-escalation from earlier 2025 peaks of 125%. No fresh announcements or court actions have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though last-minute bilateral trade talks, new USTR probes, or Chinese retaliation could theoretically shift odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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