Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward a $75-85 million opening weekend for Project Hail Mary, with 51% implied probability for $75-80M and 38% for $80-85M, propelled by Ryan Gosling's red-hot post-Barbie momentum and the film's high-concept sci-fi premise echoing The Martian's $54M debut and $630M global haul. Recent tracking reports from Deadline and Exhibitor Relations peg estimates at $76-82M, fueled by robust advance ticket sales and glowing early buzz from CinemaCon footage showcasing Gosling's charismatic lead performance. Strong genre comps like Dune ($41M pre-pandemic adjusted) and favorable March release slot amid lighter competition bolster optimism, though final pre-sales and weather could sway outcomes ahead of the March 20, 2026 bow.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert"Project Hail Mary" Eröffnungswochenende Abendkasse
"Project Hail Mary" Eröffnungswochenende Abendkasse
75-80 Mio. 45%
80-85 Mio. 43%
70-75 Mio. 7.2%
85-90 Mio. 6.6%
$507,988 Vol.
$507,988 Vol.
<50 Mio.
<1%
50-55 Mio.
<1%
55–60 Mio.
<1%
60-65 Mio.
<1%
65-70 Mio.
1%
70-75 Mio.
7%
75-80 Mio.
45%
80-85 Mio.
43%
85-90 Mio.
7%
>90 Mio.
1%
75-80 Mio. 45%
80-85 Mio. 43%
70-75 Mio. 7.2%
85-90 Mio. 6.6%
$507,988 Vol.
$507,988 Vol.
<50 Mio.
<1%
50-55 Mio.
<1%
55–60 Mio.
<1%
60-65 Mio.
<1%
65-70 Mio.
1%
70-75 Mio.
7%
75-80 Mio.
45%
80-85 Mio.
43%
85-90 Mio.
7%
>90 Mio.
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts strongly toward a $75-85 million opening weekend for Project Hail Mary, with 51% implied probability for $75-80M and 38% for $80-85M, propelled by Ryan Gosling's red-hot post-Barbie momentum and the film's high-concept sci-fi premise echoing The Martian's $54M debut and $630M global haul. Recent tracking reports from Deadline and Exhibitor Relations peg estimates at $76-82M, fueled by robust advance ticket sales and glowing early buzz from CinemaCon footage showcasing Gosling's charismatic lead performance. Strong genre comps like Dune ($41M pre-pandemic adjusted) and favorable March release slot amid lighter competition bolster optimism, though final pre-sales and weather could sway outcomes ahead of the March 20, 2026 bow.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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