Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Project Hail Mary grossing $80-85 million in its opening weekend (51% implied probability), with $75-80 million close behind at 33%, driven by Deadline's latest tracking upgrade to $75-95 million domestic—up from earlier $50-60 million estimates—fueled by Ryan Gosling's post-Barbie star power and the Super Bowl trailer's 200 million-plus views in 24 hours. Positive CinemaCon footage and directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's Spider-Verse pedigree amplify sci-fi hype akin to Dune's launch, while massive book fandom and IMAX exclusivity bolster pre-sales. Lower tiers fade amid absent counter-narratives like competition or backlash, though final tracking and March 20 release weather could nudge odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert"Project Hail Mary" Eröffnungswochenende Abendkasse
"Project Hail Mary" Eröffnungswochenende Abendkasse
80-85 Mio. 51%
75-80 Mio. 34%
85-90 Mio. 8.7%
70-75 Mio. 5.8%
$540,168 Vol.
$540,168 Vol.
<50 Mio.
<1%
50-55 Mio.
<1%
55–60 Mio.
<1%
60-65 Mio.
<1%
65-70 Mio.
1%
70-75 Mio.
6%
75-80 Mio.
34%
80-85 Mio.
51%
85-90 Mio.
9%
>90 Mio.
1%
80-85 Mio. 51%
75-80 Mio. 34%
85-90 Mio. 8.7%
70-75 Mio. 5.8%
$540,168 Vol.
$540,168 Vol.
<50 Mio.
<1%
50-55 Mio.
<1%
55–60 Mio.
<1%
60-65 Mio.
<1%
65-70 Mio.
1%
70-75 Mio.
6%
75-80 Mio.
34%
80-85 Mio.
51%
85-90 Mio.
9%
>90 Mio.
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by March 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Project Hail Mary grossing $80-85 million in its opening weekend (51% implied probability), with $75-80 million close behind at 33%, driven by Deadline's latest tracking upgrade to $75-95 million domestic—up from earlier $50-60 million estimates—fueled by Ryan Gosling's post-Barbie star power and the Super Bowl trailer's 200 million-plus views in 24 hours. Positive CinemaCon footage and directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller's Spider-Verse pedigree amplify sci-fi hype akin to Dune's launch, while massive book fandom and IMAX exclusivity bolster pre-sales. Lower tiers fade amid absent counter-narratives like competition or backlash, though final tracking and March 20 release weather could nudge odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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