Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented, wide-open field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability driven by her rising profile as Alexei Navalny's widow and a vocal Kremlin critic amid persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 8.5%, buoyed by his wartime leadership and calls for global support, while Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from speculation around potential Middle East peace deals post his 2024 election victory. No dominant frontrunner has emerged due to the prize's secretive nomination process and emphasis on sustained peace efforts; key differentiators include verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or anti-authoritarian campaigns, with odds likely to shift after January 2026 nomination deadlines and amid evolving geopolitical narratives.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFriedensnobelpreisträger 2026
Friedensnobelpreisträger 2026
Julija Nawalnaja 11%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.2%
Donald Trump 8%
Papst Leo XIV 4.0%
$11,261,311 Vol.
$11,261,311 Vol.

Julija Nawalnaja
11%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9%

Donald Trump
8%

Papst Leo XIV
4%

Internationaler Gerichtshof
4%

UNRWA
4%

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
3%

Greta Thunberg
3%

Gruppeneintrag-Titel: Charlie Kirk
2%

Narendra Modi
2%

Titel des Gruppenitems: Elon Musk
2%

Xi Jinping
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Julian Assange
1%

Khaled Mashal
1%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%

Mohammed bin Salman
1%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%

António Guterres
1%

Wladimir Putin
1%

Gruppen-Item-Titel: Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Julija Nawalnaja 11%
Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.2%
Donald Trump 8%
Papst Leo XIV 4.0%
$11,261,311 Vol.
$11,261,311 Vol.

Julija Nawalnaja
11%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Volodymyr Zelenskyy
9%

Donald Trump
8%

Papst Leo XIV
4%

Internationaler Gerichtshof
4%

UNRWA
4%

Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
3%

Greta Thunberg
3%

Gruppeneintrag-Titel: Charlie Kirk
2%

Narendra Modi
2%

Titel des Gruppenitems: Elon Musk
2%

Xi Jinping
2%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Julian Assange
1%

Khaled Mashal
1%

Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%

Mohammed bin Salman
1%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%

António Guterres
1%

Wladimir Putin
1%

Gruppen-Item-Titel: Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented, wide-open field for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, with Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability driven by her rising profile as Alexei Navalny's widow and a vocal Kremlin critic amid persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 8.5%, buoyed by his wartime leadership and calls for global support, while Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from speculation around potential Middle East peace deals post his 2024 election victory. No dominant frontrunner has emerged due to the prize's secretive nomination process and emphasis on sustained peace efforts; key differentiators include verifiable diplomatic breakthroughs or anti-authoritarian campaigns, with odds likely to shift after January 2026 nomination deadlines and amid evolving geopolitical narratives.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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