Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 26% implied probability on SpaceX raising $70-80 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, leading a fragmented field where $50-60 billion (19%) and $60-70 billion (18%) bins closely compete, reflecting skepticism around recent rumors of a record $75 billion raise at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation despite no confirmed filing. Recent tender offers valued the company at $800 billion amid Starlink's $16 billion 2025 revenue trajectory and 97% U.S. launch market dominance, but aggressive IPO multiples invite debate on market reception, competitive positioning against Rocket Lab and peers, and macroeconomic risk appetite. Key swing factors include imminent prospectus details, Starship milestones, and equity volatility ahead of a potential mid-year listing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$82,616 Vol.
$82,616 Vol.
<40B
6%
40-50B
15%
50-60B
19%
60-70B
18%
70-80B
26%
80-90B
14%
90-100B
5%
100-110B
1%
110-120B
1%
120 Mrd.+
2%
$82,616 Vol.
$82,616 Vol.
<40B
$8,494 Vol.
6%
40-50B
$4,961 Vol.
15%
50-60B
$15,387 Vol.
19%
60-70B
$7,316 Vol.
18%
70-80B
$10,779 Vol.
26%
80-90B
$7,357 Vol.
14%
90-100B
$7,729 Vol.
5%
100-110B
$5,899 Vol.
1%
110-120B
$7,620 Vol.
1%
120 Mrd.+
$7,073 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 26% implied probability on SpaceX raising $70-80 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, leading a fragmented field where $50-60 billion (19%) and $60-70 billion (18%) bins closely compete, reflecting skepticism around recent rumors of a record $75 billion raise at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation despite no confirmed filing. Recent tender offers valued the company at $800 billion amid Starlink's $16 billion 2025 revenue trajectory and 97% U.S. launch market dominance, but aggressive IPO multiples invite debate on market reception, competitive positioning against Rocket Lab and peers, and macroeconomic risk appetite. Key swing factors include imminent prospectus details, Starship milestones, and equity volatility ahead of a potential mid-year listing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volumen
$82,616Markt eröffnet
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 26% implied probability on SpaceX raising $70-80 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, leading a fragmented field where $50-60 billion (19%) and $60-70 billion (18%) bins closely compete, reflecting skepticism around recent rumors of a record $75 billion raise at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation despite no confirmed filing. Recent tender offers valued the company at $800 billion amid Starlink's $16 billion 2025 revenue trajectory and 97% U.S. launch market dominance, but aggressive IPO multiples invite debate on market reception, competitive positioning against Rocket Lab and peers, and macroeconomic risk appetite. Key swing factors include imminent prospectus details, Starship milestones, and equity volatility ahead of a potential mid-year listing.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$82,616Markt eröffnet
Mar 25, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 26% implied probability on SpaceX raising $70-80 billion in its anticipated 2026 IPO, leading a fragmented field where $50-60 billion (19%) and $60-70 billion (18%) bins closely compete, reflecting skepticism around recent rumors of a record $75 billion raise at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation despite no confirmed filing. Recent tender offers valued the company at $800 billion amid Starlink's $16 billion 2025 revenue trajectory and 97% U.S. launch market dominance, but aggressive IPO multiples invite debate on market reception, competitive positioning against Rocket Lab and peers, and macroeconomic risk appetite. Key swing factors include imminent prospectus details, Starship milestones, and equity volatility ahead of a potential mid-year listing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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