Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on April 4, driven by confirmed observational data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's official resolution source—showing peak readings at exactly 20°C amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate northerly winds that suppressed warming. This aligns precisely with the latest China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF models, which projected 19–21°C highs following a cool front earlier in the week. Early April climatology at Pudong typically features average highs around 18°C, with historical analogs supporting this outcome under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include a potential revision from unverified micro-site data or an improbable late-afternoon heat spike before sunset, though temperatures are already declining rapidly; final confirmation awaits post-midnight official reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 4?
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$311,544 Vol.
$311,544 Vol.
4. Apr. 2026
20°C
100%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 100.0%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$311,544 Vol.
$311,544 Vol.
4. Apr. 2026
20°C
$68,910 Vol.
100%
21°C
$25,900 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$29,457 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$18,555 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$32,822 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on April 4, driven by confirmed observational data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's official resolution source—showing peak readings at exactly 20°C amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate northerly winds that suppressed warming. This aligns precisely with the latest China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF models, which projected 19–21°C highs following a cool front earlier in the week. Early April climatology at Pudong typically features average highs around 18°C, with historical analogs supporting this outcome under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include a potential revision from unverified micro-site data or an improbable late-afternoon heat spike before sunset, though temperatures are already declining rapidly; final confirmation awaits post-midnight official reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ET
Volumen
$311,544Enddatum
4. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on April 4, driven by confirmed observational data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's official resolution source—showing peak readings at exactly 20°C amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate northerly winds that suppressed warming. This aligns precisely with the latest China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF models, which projected 19–21°C highs following a cool front earlier in the week. Early April climatology at Pudong typically features average highs around 18°C, with historical analogs supporting this outcome under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include a potential revision from unverified micro-site data or an improbable late-afternoon heat spike before sunset, though temperatures are already declining rapidly; final confirmation awaits post-midnight official reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$311,544Enddatum
4. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 29, 2026, 4:04 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 20°C in Shanghai on April 4, driven by confirmed observational data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's official resolution source—showing peak readings at exactly 20°C amid partly cloudy conditions and moderate northerly winds that suppressed warming. This aligns precisely with the latest China Meteorological Administration updates and ensemble forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF models, which projected 19–21°C highs following a cool front earlier in the week. Early April climatology at Pudong typically features average highs around 18°C, with historical analogs supporting this outcome under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include a potential revision from unverified micro-site data or an improbable late-afternoon heat spike before sunset, though temperatures are already declining rapidly; final confirmation awaits post-midnight official reports.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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