Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 27°C at 99.9% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 3, 2026, reflecting the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official observational data confirming this maximum air temperature at its headquarters station. This measurement aligns with fine weather conditions featuring ample sunshine and light winds, consistent with the seasonal forecast of normal to above-normal temperatures for April-June and the unseasonably warm March preceding it, where monthly means exceeded climatological norms. HKO's precise thermometric records, taken at standard 1.5 meters above ground, provide definitive evidence amid typical early April highs around 26°C historically. Realistic challenges are minimal—only an unprecedented data revision from audit or equipment malfunction could shift resolution, a scenario with negligible precedent in HKO's rigorous monitoring protocols.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on April 3?
27°C 99.9%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,746 Vol.
$223,746 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.9%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$223,746 Vol.
$223,746 Vol.
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 3:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 27°C at 99.9% implied probability for Hong Kong's highest temperature on April 3, 2026, reflecting the Hong Kong Observatory's (HKO) official observational data confirming this maximum air temperature at its headquarters station. This measurement aligns with fine weather conditions featuring ample sunshine and light winds, consistent with the seasonal forecast of normal to above-normal temperatures for April-June and the unseasonably warm March preceding it, where monthly means exceeded climatological norms. HKO's precise thermometric records, taken at standard 1.5 meters above ground, provide definitive evidence amid typical early April highs around 26°C historically. Realistic challenges are minimal—only an unprecedented data revision from audit or equipment malfunction could shift resolution, a scenario with negligible precedent in HKO's rigorous monitoring protocols.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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