Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertErhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 75%
No change 24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 3.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
NEU
NEU
11. Juni 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
24%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
75%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
4%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 75%
No change 24%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte 3.6%
25 bps decrease <1%
NEU
NEU
11. Juni 2026
50+ bps decrease
$835 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$813 Vol.
1%
No change
$1,226 Vol.
24%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$1,579 Vol.
75%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$1,235 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$5,688Enddatum
11. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volumen
$5,688Enddatum
11. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 75% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, reflecting hawkish repricing amid resurgent inflation pressures. Eurozone headline CPI accelerated to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February—driven by Middle East conflicts elevating energy costs—prompting the ECB to lift its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% on March 19 while holding the deposit rate at 2%. President Lagarde signaled readiness for hikes even on short-lived shocks, aligning with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecasting June tightening toward 2.5%. Slightly rising unemployment at 6.2% tempers growth worries, with the April 30 policy meeting and fresh CPI data as pivotal catalysts ahead.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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