Geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply balances, positioning the market-implied 71% probability that June 2026 WTI Crude Oil settles above $84 as the dominant outcome. Spot prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid production shut-ins and elevated risk premiums, as reflected in the June futures contract trading near $105. Traders price in persistent constraints outweighing modest demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases, though some diplomatic signals have tempered extreme upside. Key near-term catalysts include further escalation or de-escalation developments, June EIA inventory reports, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could alter the price trajectory before final settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWorauf wird sich Rohöl (CL) im Juni einstellen?
>$84 72%
$77-$84 19%
70–77 $ 8.0%
$63-$70 1.7%
$163,869 Vol.
$163,869 Vol.
< $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
70–77 $
8%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
72%
>$84 72%
$77-$84 19%
70–77 $ 8.0%
$63-$70 1.7%
$163,869 Vol.
$163,869 Vol.
< $42
1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
70–77 $
8%
$77-$84
19%
>$84
72%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have tightened global supply balances, positioning the market-implied 71% probability that June 2026 WTI Crude Oil settles above $84 as the dominant outcome. Spot prices have climbed above $100 per barrel amid production shut-ins and elevated risk premiums, as reflected in the June futures contract trading near $105. Traders price in persistent constraints outweighing modest demand growth and non-OPEC supply increases, though some diplomatic signals have tempered extreme upside. Key near-term catalysts include further escalation or de-escalation developments, June EIA inventory reports, and OPEC+ compliance updates that could alter the price trajectory before final settlement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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