Ongoing US-Iran military strikes and naval blockade have sharply curtailed Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Tehran’s shipments and features deepwater terminals with multimillion-barrel daily capacity. Export volumes have collapsed from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months amid interdictions, with on-water storage also declining sharply. These islands, including Hormuz and Hengam near the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil trade, underpin Iran’s ability to influence tanker routing and energy flows; repeated targeting of military assets on Kharg and nearby sites has elevated Brent crude prices and tanker risk premiums without altering sovereign control. Traders are monitoring potential escalation thresholds, renewed diplomatic talks, or shifts in blockade enforcement that could affect resolution probabilities before the market deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$136,381 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
September 30
2%
$136,381 Vol.
September 30
$83,605 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military strikes and naval blockade have sharply curtailed Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Tehran’s shipments and features deepwater terminals with multimillion-barrel daily capacity. Export volumes have collapsed from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months amid interdictions, with on-water storage also declining sharply. These islands, including Hormuz and Hengam near the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil trade, underpin Iran’s ability to influence tanker routing and energy flows; repeated targeting of military assets on Kharg and nearby sites has elevated Brent crude prices and tanker risk premiums without altering sovereign control. Traders are monitoring potential escalation thresholds, renewed diplomatic talks, or shifts in blockade enforcement that could affect resolution probabilities before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$136,381Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military strikes and naval blockade have sharply curtailed Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Tehran’s shipments and features deepwater terminals with multimillion-barrel daily capacity. Export volumes have collapsed from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months amid interdictions, with on-water storage also declining sharply. These islands, including Hormuz and Hengam near the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil trade, underpin Iran’s ability to influence tanker routing and energy flows; repeated targeting of military assets on Kharg and nearby sites has elevated Brent crude prices and tanker risk premiums without altering sovereign control. Traders are monitoring potential escalation thresholds, renewed diplomatic talks, or shifts in blockade enforcement that could affect resolution probabilities before the market deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$136,381Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military strikes and naval blockade have sharply curtailed Iranian crude exports from Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Tehran’s shipments and features deepwater terminals with multimillion-barrel daily capacity. Export volumes have collapsed from nearly 2 million barrels per day in February to as low as 135,000–251,000 barrels per day in recent months amid interdictions, with on-water storage also declining sharply. These islands, including Hormuz and Hengam near the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint for about one-fifth of global oil trade, underpin Iran’s ability to influence tanker routing and energy flows; repeated targeting of military assets on Kharg and nearby sites has elevated Brent crude prices and tanker risk premiums without altering sovereign control. Traders are monitoring potential escalation thresholds, renewed diplomatic talks, or shifts in blockade enforcement that could affect resolution probabilities before the market deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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