The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since its last underground detonation in 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments of warhead safety and reliability. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from the Energy Secretary that no explosive tests were planned at the time, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and reports of possible low-yield activities by Russia and China have kept the issue in focus without altering U.S. policy. Congressional opposition, including the RESTRAIN Act, and Nevada’s resistance further reinforce continuity. Trader consensus reflected in current low probabilities for a test by late 2026 stems from these structural and procedural barriers rather than any confirmed timeline for resumption.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডদ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
দ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
$667,461 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
৩০ জুন, ২০২৬
2%
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
5%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
9%
$667,461 Vol.
৩০ জুন, ২০২৬
$40,114 Vol.
2%
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
$6,656 Vol.
5%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since its last underground detonation in 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments of warhead safety and reliability. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from the Energy Secretary that no explosive tests were planned at the time, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and reports of possible low-yield activities by Russia and China have kept the issue in focus without altering U.S. policy. Congressional opposition, including the RESTRAIN Act, and Nevada’s resistance further reinforce continuity. Trader consensus reflected in current low probabilities for a test by late 2026 stems from these structural and procedural barriers rather than any confirmed timeline for resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ভলিউম
$667,461শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since its last underground detonation in 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments of warhead safety and reliability. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from the Energy Secretary that no explosive tests were planned at the time, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and reports of possible low-yield activities by Russia and China have kept the issue in focus without altering U.S. policy. Congressional opposition, including the RESTRAIN Act, and Nevada’s resistance further reinforce continuity. Trader consensus reflected in current low probabilities for a test by late 2026 stems from these structural and procedural barriers rather than any confirmed timeline for resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$667,461শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests since its last underground detonation in 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments of warhead safety and reliability. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from the Energy Secretary that no explosive tests were planned at the time, while New START’s February 2026 expiration and reports of possible low-yield activities by Russia and China have kept the issue in focus without altering U.S. policy. Congressional opposition, including the RESTRAIN Act, and Nevada’s resistance further reinforce continuity. Trader consensus reflected in current low probabilities for a test by late 2026 stems from these structural and procedural barriers rather than any confirmed timeline for resumption.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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