President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities inconsistent with CTBT standards, remains the central driver of market positioning. New START’s February 2026 expiration and the inconclusive 2026 NPT Review Conference added momentum to the debate, while administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader assessments hinge on whether future policy shifts could override the zero-yield standard before any resolution deadline, alongside routine missile readiness exercises and infrastructure investments that do not alter the testing moratorium.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডদ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
দ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
$795,477 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
1%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
6%
$795,477 Vol.
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
$57,746 Vol.
1%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities inconsistent with CTBT standards, remains the central driver of market positioning. New START’s February 2026 expiration and the inconclusive 2026 NPT Review Conference added momentum to the debate, while administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader assessments hinge on whether future policy shifts could override the zero-yield standard before any resolution deadline, alongside routine missile readiness exercises and infrastructure investments that do not alter the testing moratorium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ভলিউম
$795,477শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities inconsistent with CTBT standards, remains the central driver of market positioning. New START’s February 2026 expiration and the inconclusive 2026 NPT Review Conference added momentum to the debate, while administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader assessments hinge on whether future policy shifts could override the zero-yield standard before any resolution deadline, alongside routine missile readiness exercises and infrastructure investments that do not alter the testing moratorium.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$795,477শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 announcement directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield activities inconsistent with CTBT standards, remains the central driver of market positioning. New START’s February 2026 expiration and the inconclusive 2026 NPT Review Conference added momentum to the debate, while administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations. As of September 2026, no explosive nuclear test has occurred at the Nevada National Security Site. Trader assessments hinge on whether future policy shifts could override the zero-yield standard before any resolution deadline, alongside routine missile readiness exercises and infrastructure investments that do not alter the testing moratorium.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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