Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 9% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism amid the 34-year testing moratorium since 1992, despite informal adherence to the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving low odds are the absence of concrete preparations or executive orders following President Trump's October 2025 threat to match alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia, reiterated in U.S. accusations through February 2026. A March statement from a top Energy Department official left underground tests possible but uncommitted, tempered by Nevada congressional opposition hosting the Nevada National Security Site. Fiscal year 2027 budget deliberations and CTBTO monitoring updates could shift dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডদ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
দ্বারা মার্কিন পারমাণবিক পরীক্ষা...?
$664,797 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
৩০ জুন, ২০২৬
2%
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
6%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
9%
$664,797 Vol.
৩০ জুন, ২০২৬
$38,778 Vol.
2%
৩০ সেপ্টেম্বর, ২০২৬
$5,584 Vol.
6%
৩১ ডিসেম্বর, ২০২৬
$10,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 9% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism amid the 34-year testing moratorium since 1992, despite informal adherence to the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving low odds are the absence of concrete preparations or executive orders following President Trump's October 2025 threat to match alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia, reiterated in U.S. accusations through February 2026. A March statement from a top Energy Department official left underground tests possible but uncommitted, tempered by Nevada congressional opposition hosting the Nevada National Security Site. Fiscal year 2027 budget deliberations and CTBTO monitoring updates could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ভলিউম
$664,797শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 9% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism amid the 34-year testing moratorium since 1992, despite informal adherence to the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving low odds are the absence of concrete preparations or executive orders following President Trump's October 2025 threat to match alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia, reiterated in U.S. accusations through February 2026. A March statement from a top Energy Department official left underground tests possible but uncommitted, tempered by Nevada congressional opposition hosting the Nevada National Security Site. Fiscal year 2027 budget deliberations and CTBTO monitoring updates could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$664,797শেষ তারিখ
Mar 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns just a 9% implied probability to a U.S. nuclear test by December 31, 2026—the leading outcome—reflecting skepticism amid the 34-year testing moratorium since 1992, despite informal adherence to the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving low odds are the absence of concrete preparations or executive orders following President Trump's October 2025 threat to match alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia, reiterated in U.S. accusations through February 2026. A March statement from a top Energy Department official left underground tests possible but uncommitted, tempered by Nevada congressional opposition hosting the Nevada National Security Site. Fiscal year 2027 budget deliberations and CTBTO monitoring updates could shift dynamics.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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