Russia maintains a moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since the Soviet era, conditioning any resumption on similar U.S. action, as stated by President Putin in late 2025 when directing proposals for preparations amid U.S. signals. Recent activity centers on delivery-system trials like Burevestnik and Poseidon, annual emergency drills at sites including Beloyarsk in October 2026, and upgrades near command facilities, none of which involve actual detonations. Trader consensus prices a test by late 2026 at low single digits, reflecting the strategic costs, arms-control norms, and lack of confirmed steps toward live testing despite heightened rhetoric tied to Ukraine and strategic modernization. Scheduled exercises or diplomatic shifts could influence positioning before year-end resolution windows.