Russia announces and begins nuclear-capable missile tests at Kura range ahead of Victory Day parade

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%

Russia publicly announced missile tests involving nuclear-capable systems at the Kura test site from May 6 to May 10, a traditional strategic deterrence exercise timed with the May 9 Victory Day parade. Despite the missile tests, no nuclear detonation occurred, and the tests were interpreted as a show of force rather than a nuclear test, contributing to a further decline in market probability.

Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the

December 31, 2026 drops to 4%5%

Polymarket analysis notes that, despite Yars drills and bomber patrols, there is “absent CTBTO seismic data” and “Kremlin restraint statements,” further depressing the test‑probability outlook

U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium

December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%

U.S. Congress receives the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment stating Russia has suffered “multiple failed tests of new systems,” reinforcing expectations of continued test moratorium

Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%

Congressional Research Service report reiterates that Russia’s “modernization” is hampered by failed tests and that the New START treaty has just expired – The report underscored that, despite the treaty’s lapse, Russia publicly pledged to continue abiding by its limits, reinforcing trader sentiment that a test was unlikely before Sept 30.

Russian Defense Ministry reports successful training completion of Yars missile system driver-mechanics arriving for service

Routine personnel training for nuclear-capable missile systems indicated ongoing readiness but no test, supporting low market probabilities.

IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about

September 30, 2026 dips to 8%1%

IAEA Director‑General Rafael Grossi warns that any nuclear test by Russia (or the U.S.) would spark a cascade of worldwide testing – The UN‑backed warning amplified concerns about escalation, leading markets to further discount the probability of a Russian test in the near term.

The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test

December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%

The Russian‑held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant loses external power for an hour on the 40th anniversary of Chernobyl, raising safety concerns but providing no evidence of a test

Multiple statements from international organizations and Russian officials reiterated that Russia had revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Multiple statements from international organizations and Russian officials reiterated that Russia had revoked its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in 2023 but continued to claim adherence to a moratorium on nuclear testing. The ongoing diplomatic warnings and lack of confirmed nuclear detonations contributed to the market's sustained low probability for a nuclear test .

Russian forces launch massive missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, including attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

Escalation in conventional strikes near nuclear sites raised concerns but no nuclear test occurred, maintaining low test probability.

Congressional Research Service report highlights Russia’s nuclear arsenal modernization amid multiple failed tests

September 30, 2026 dips to 7%3%

The US Congress report detailed Russia’s ongoing nuclear weapons modernization but noted multiple failed tests of new systems, signaling capability challenges and reducing confidence in an imminent nuclear test. This intelligence assessment reinforced market skepticism.

The U.S. Congressional Research Service released a report stating that Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal despite multiple failed tests of new systems, with no confirmed

The U.S. Congressional Research Service released a report stating that Russia is modernizing its nuclear arsenal despite multiple failed tests of new systems, with no confirmed nuclear test detonations. This report emphasized Russia's focus on missile and weapons system development rather than actual nuclear test explosions, reinforcing skepticism about an imminent test and stabilizing the market probability around 12% through April .

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi warned at the United Nations that if the US, Russia, or any other nation conducts a nuclear test, it would

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi warned at the United Nations that if the US, Russia, or any other nation conducts a nuclear test, it would trigger others to follow, highlighting the risks of resuming nuclear testing amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. This underscored the international pressure against nuclear tests and likely contributed to the initial drop in market probability from 50% to 12% in early April .

Head of organization overseeing nuclear test ban treaty warns US and Russia against nuclear testing

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director General, warned at the UN that if the US, Russia, or any nation conducts a nuclear test, others will follow, emphasizing the global risks and urging restraint. This statement contributed to a sharp drop in the market's perceived likelihood of a Russian nuclear test.

UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint

UN chief Rafael Grossi and CTBTO executive Robert Floyd warn that a Russian nuclear test would trigger a “spiral” of further tests, underscoring Kremlin restraint

Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%

Russian Foreign Ministry publicly rejects any possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine – The statement was interpreted as a broader signal of restraint on nuclear activities, contributing to the continued decline in the “Yes”

Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia conducts Yars ICBM drills in Siberia, but no warhead‑test activity is reported

Russian Strategic Missile Forces conduct large-scale drills in Siberia involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia held major nuclear missile drills with Yars ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear readiness and signaling deterrence without conducting nuclear tests, contributing to a sharp drop in test probability.

U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

U.S. intelligence briefing flags “multiple failed tests” of new Russian nuclear systems – A March testimony cited in the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment warned that Russia’s recent attempts at modernizing its arsenal had repeatedly failed, prompting traders to slash the perceived likelihood of a test before the end‑September deadline.