Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Kyiv using Oreshnik and other missiles

September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%

Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Kyiv, employing the hypersonic Oreshnik missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Despite the missile's nuclear capability, the strikes were conventional, and no nuclear test was reported, which led to a further decline in market prices for nuclear test occurrence.

Russia uses hypersonic Oreshnik missile in mass attack on Kyiv

December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv using the hypersonic Oreshnik missile, capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Despite the missile's nuclear capability, no nuclear test was conducted, which maintained downward pressure on the market prices.

EU officials condemn Russia's use of Oreshnik missile and discuss increasing pressure on Moscow

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%2%

The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs called Russia's use of the Oreshnik missile a reckless risk of nuclear war and announced plans to discuss increased international pressure on Russia. This political response underscored the seriousness of the missile's nuclear capability but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, reinforcing market skepticism.

Russia launches nuclear-capable missiles and issues nuclear munitions amid NATO tensions

December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%

As part of ongoing nuclear drills, Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units, signaling nuclear readiness amid heightened tensions but without conducting a nuclear detonation, sustaining market skepticism about an imminent test.

Russia delivers nuclear munitions to units during nuclear drills amid NATO tensions

Russia issued nuclear munitions to some units and launched nuclear-capable missiles as part of ongoing nuclear drills, signaling heightened readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This maintained pressure on NATO but did not increase the probability of a nuclear test, reflected in stable low market prices.

Russia delivers nuclear munitions to units amid major nuclear drills

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

As part of ongoing nuclear exercises, Russia issued nuclear munitions to some units and displayed strategic nuclear assets, reinforcing deterrence posture but not conducting nuclear tests. This contributed to the market's low probability of a test.

Putin and Lukashenko monitor joint Russia-Belarus nuclear exercises via video conference

Russian and Belarusian presidents participated directly in joint nuclear forces exercises involving missile launches and strategic bombers, demonstrating nuclear force coordination but no nuclear test. This event maintained market expectations of no imminent nuclear detonation by Russia.

Russia issues nuclear munitions amid major nuclear exercises amid NATO tensions

Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to some units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO, demonstrating nuclear force readiness but no nuclear test was conducted.

Russia and Belarus conduct large-scale joint nuclear drills involving nuclear-capable missiles

Russia and Belarus held extensive nuclear drills involving 64,000 troops, over 200 missile launchers, nuclear-powered submarines, and strategic bombers. This demonstration of nuclear force amid tensions with the West heightened market concerns about a possible nuclear test but did not result in one, contributing to initial price volatility.

Russia flexes nuclear muscles amid NATO tensions with missile launches and munitions issuance

Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to some units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO over the Ukraine war and Baltic drone activity. This military signaling reinforced perceptions of nuclear capability without crossing into nuclear testing, sustaining low market probabilities for a test.

Russia and Belarus complete combined nuclear exercises

Russian and Belarusian forces completed combined nuclear exercises involving delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions, including launches of ICBMs, demonstrating nuclear force integration but no nuclear detonations. This reinforced market views of no imminent nuclear test.

Russia flexes nuclear muscles with missile launches and nuclear munitions delivery amid NATO tensions

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units during major nuclear exercises amid heightened tensions with NATO. This show of force underscored Russia's nuclear readiness but did not constitute a nuclear test detonation, further reducing market expectations for a test by the deadlines.

Putin and Lukashenko monitor joint Russia-Belarus nuclear exercises

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russian and Belarusian leaders oversaw strategic nuclear drills involving ballistic missile launches and hypersonic missile tests. These exercises heightened geopolitical tensions but did not include nuclear test detonations, reinforcing market expectations of no nuclear test.

Russia delivers nuclear warheads in major exercise amid Ukraine conflict

Russian troops moved nuclear warheads during a three-day exercise, underscoring Moscow's nuclear posture amid its conflict with the West over Ukraine. This military signaling reinforced the market's view of nuclear capability without a nuclear test, sustaining low probabilities for a test event.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and numerous strategic assets, including nuclear submarines and missile launchers, with Belarusian forces participating. This display of nuclear muscle amid geopolitical tensions did not involve a nuclear test detonation, further pushing market prices down as the test likelihood diminished.

Russia conducts large-scale unannounced nuclear exercises including Belarusian launch sites

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear force preparation and use. Despite the scale and nuclear-capable systems involved, no nuclear detonation test occurred, maintaining low market probabilities for a nuclear test.

Russia conducts unannounced nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia launched an unannounced nuclear exercise involving Belarusian launch sites, signaling nuclear readiness and strategic messaging but no nuclear test detonation. This event reinforced market expectations that Russia was not conducting a nuclear test, maintaining low probabilities.

Russia conducts major nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites

Russia launched nuclear-capable missiles and issued nuclear munitions to units during a large-scale nuclear exercise amid tensions with NATO. This demonstration of nuclear readiness was a show of force but did not involve an actual nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism about imminent nuclear detonations.

Russia conducts major nuclear-capable forces exercise including Belarusian sites

June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

Russia launched a large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving nuclear-capable missiles and munitions, demonstrating readiness and deterrence without conducting a nuclear test. This military signaling maintained market skepticism about an imminent nuclear detonation.

Russia shows troops moving nuclear warheads in major exercise

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

During the ongoing nuclear forces exercise, Russia publicly displayed troops transporting nuclear warheads, signaling readiness and deterrence without conducting a nuclear test. This demonstration maintained market skepticism about an imminent nuclear test but underscored Russia's nuclear posture.

Russia conducts major nuclear forces exercise including Belarusian launch sites

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%3%

Russia held a large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving the movement of nuclear warheads and missile launches, including from Belarusian territory. This demonstrated nuclear readiness and muscle-flexing but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines.

Russia launches massive nuclear drills involving thousands of troops and submarines

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%

A major three-day nuclear exercise was launched from May 19-21, 2026, involving over 65,000 troops, 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, and 13 submarines, raising global tensions.

Russia shows footage of troops delivering nuclear warheads in major nuclear exercise

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%1%

Reuters reported Russia released footage showing troops delivering nuclear warheads to Iskander-M missile systems, loading them, and moving them to launch sites as part of a major nuclear exercise.

Russia conducts major nuclear-capable forces exercise including Belarusian sites

September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%

Russia held a large-scale nuclear forces exercise involving the movement and deployment of nuclear warheads and missile launches, demonstrating military readiness amid tensions but without conducting a nuclear test. This reinforced market views that Russia was signaling strength without actual nuclear detonations, contributing to further price declines.

Russia conducts large-scale nuclear forces exercise including warhead delivery

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%2%

Russia held major nuclear exercises involving delivery of nuclear warheads to missile launchers and mobilization of strategic forces. This demonstration of nuclear readiness increased tensions and market uncertainty but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, contributing to the decline in test probability prices.

Russia conducts large-scale nuclear exercise including warhead delivery drills

December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

Russia launched its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and nuclear-capable systems, including drills delivering nuclear warheads to missile launchers. This demonstrated readiness but did not involve a nuclear test detonation, maintaining downward pressure on test probabilities.

Russia launches unannounced major nuclear exercise including Belarusian launch sites

Russia conducted a major nuclear forces exercise involving delivery and preparation of nuclear warheads, including operations from Belarusian territory. This military drill was framed as preparation for nuclear force use in case of aggression but did not involve an actual nuclear test detonation, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by the deadlines.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites

Russia conducted large-scale nuclear forces exercises involving tens of thousands of troops and numerous missile launchers, rehearsing nuclear weapon use procedures. These exercises were seen as nuclear posturing rather than actual nuclear tests, maintaining downward pressure on the probability of a nuclear detonation test.

ISW says Russia’s surprise May nuclear drills were a strategic pressure move

June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%

ISW analysis explained that the surprise May nuclear drills were intended to pressure NATO and distract from battlefield setbacks, reinforcing the view that the activities were political signaling rather than an actual test, further pushing odds lower.

Russia conducts largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia launched extensive nuclear drills involving tens of thousands of troops and numerous missile launchers, rehearsing launch procedures for tactical nuclear weapons. Despite the scale and nuclear readiness demonstration, no nuclear detonation test occurred, maintaining downward pressure on test probabilities.

Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia released footage of troops loading nuclear warheads onto mobile missile launchers as part of a major nuclear exercise, emphasizing combat readiness but not conducting a nuclear test detonation. This reinforced market sentiment against a near-term test.

Russia conducts major nuclear warhead delivery exercise

December 31, 2026 rises to 8%1%

Russia showcased troops delivering nuclear warheads to missile launchers and rehearsed launch procedures in a large-scale nuclear exercise, demonstrating readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This maintained market caution about an imminent nuclear test.

Russia shows troops loading nuclear warheads onto Iskander‑M launchers in major exercise

June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

Russia released footage of troops loading nuclear warheads onto mobile Iskander‑M launchers as part of a large‑scale nuclear exercise. While the drill demonstrated readiness, it also signalled that Russia was focusing on conventional‑level nuclear posturing rather than conducting an actual test, nudging the market further down.

Russia conducts major nuclear exercise with warhead delivery drills

June 30, 2026 rises to 3%1%

Russian forces demonstrated delivery and loading of nuclear warheads onto mobile missile launchers during a large nuclear exercise, emphasizing combat readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This reinforced market perceptions of nuclear threat without confirming a test.

Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise

December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

Russia released footage of troops loading and moving nuclear warheads to missile launchers during ongoing nuclear exercises, signaling high combat readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This reinforced market views that Russia was demonstrating nuclear capability without actual nuclear detonations.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercise in years including Belarusian launch sites

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia conducted a major nuclear forces exercise involving thousands of troops and numerous missile launchers, demonstrating readiness to use nuclear weapons if threatened. This military signaling reinforced market expectations against an imminent nuclear test detonation.

Russia shows troops delivering nuclear warheads in major exercise

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia released footage showing troops delivering nuclear warheads to mobile Iskander-M missile launch systems as part of a major nuclear forces exercise, demonstrating nuclear readiness.

Russia launches massive nuclear forces exercise amid heightened tensions

September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%

Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear forces exercise from May 19-21 involving tens of thousands of troops, missiles, aircraft, and submarines. The drills focused on preparation and potential use of nuclear weapons but did not include any nuclear test, which contributed to the market lowering the probability of a nuclear test occurring.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian sites

Russia initiated its largest nuclear exercises in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops and numerous nuclear-capable systems, including integration with Belarusian forces. The unannounced drills were framed as preparation for nuclear force use in case of aggression, signaling nuclear readiness but not involving a nuclear test, which further lowered market expectations for a test.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia began unannounced large-scale nuclear exercises involving tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, including strategic nuclear forces. The drills demonstrated nuclear readiness but did not involve an actual nuclear detonation, contributing to market skepticism about a nuclear test occurring soon.

Russian Defense Ministry announces nuclear drills rehearsal for threat scenarios

The Russian Defense Ministry framed the ongoing nuclear exercises as rehearsals for preparation and use of nuclear forces in case of aggression. This official framing emphasized readiness and deterrence without indicating any nuclear test, maintaining downward pressure on nuclear test probability markets.

Russia announces nuclear forces exercise without prior notice

December 31, 2026 dips to 7%1%

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced an unannounced nuclear exercise from May 19 to May 21, involving the Strategic Missile Forces, Northern and Pacific Fleets, and other military units, following the successful Sarmat missile test.

Russia launches massive unannounced nuclear exercise with Belarusian launch sites

December 31, 2026 jumps to 9%5%

The Russian Defense Ministry announced a three-day nuclear exercise involving 65,000 troops, 200 missile launchers, 140 aircraft, and 13 submarines, conducted without prior public notice.

Russia launches largest unannounced nuclear exercises including Belarusian sites

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia commenced large-scale nuclear force exercises involving 64,000 personnel, missile launchers, aircraft, ships, and submarines, rehearsing nuclear launch procedures. The unannounced nature and scale heightened geopolitical tensions but did not involve an actual nuclear test, leading to further market price declines.

Russian Ministry of Defense announces nuclear force exercises amid geopolitical tensions

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

The Russian MoD announced exercises involving strategic missile forces and naval units to prepare for nuclear force use in response to aggression threats. This official confirmation of nuclear drills reinforced market expectations of no imminent nuclear test but ongoing nuclear readiness.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years

September 30, 2026 plunges to 5%46%

Russia mobilized nearly 65,000 troops and strategic forces for its largest nuclear drills in years, announced without prior public notice, featuring practice launches of nuclear-capable missiles.

Russia launches massive nuclear forces exercise amid heightened tensions

December 31, 2026 dips to 5%3%

Russia conducted a large-scale nuclear forces exercise from May 19-21 involving thousands of troops and numerous missile launches, demonstrating readiness but not conducting a nuclear test. This military drill heightened geopolitical tensions but did not fulfill the market's nuclear test criteria, contributing to further price declines.

Russia begins massive nuclear forces maneuvers amid Ukraine conflict

September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%

Russia launched large-scale nuclear drills involving ballistic and cruise missile practice launches, signaling heightened nuclear readiness but without conducting an actual nuclear test. This increased market wariness about nuclear escalation.

Russia launches surprise three‑day nuclear exercise with live missile launches

June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%

An unannounced large‑scale nuclear exercise involving 65,000 troops and live missile launches was launched. The drill was framed as a rehearsal, not a test, prompting the market to view the activity as signaling rather than a nuclear detonation, pushing odds still lower.

Belarus announces parallel nuclear exercise with Russia

The Belarusian Defense Ministry announced its own nuclear exercise on May 18, coordinating with Russian forces to practice the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions from unprepared positions.

Russia launches largest nuclear exercises in years including Belarusian launch sites

December 31, 2026 dips to 5%3%

Russia began a large-scale, unannounced nuclear exercise involving 65,000 troops, missile launchers, aircraft, and submarines, including strategic nuclear forces. Belarus participated with coordinated nuclear munitions drills. These exercises were seen as nuclear signaling and readiness tests, not actual nuclear detonations, further reducing market expectations of a nuclear test.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists outlines Russia’s nuclear modernization and recent ICBM test

September 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a detailed overview of Russia’s nuclear arsenal and noted the recent Sarmat test, emphasizing that no nuclear explosion had been reported. The technical focus helped traders downgrade the chance of a test.

Putin announces deployment of nuclear-capable RS-28 Sarmat missile by year-end

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared plans to deploy the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, a nuclear-capable missile, by the end of 2026. This announcement indicated nuclear capability expansion but did not involve a nuclear test, leading to market price declines as no test occurred.

Bulletin: Russia’s nuclear modernization hampered – no test confirmed in 2026

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists published a detailed assessment noting that Russia’s nuclear modernization program faces “significant challenges and delays” and that no nuclear test had been confirmed in 2026. The analysis reinforced market sentiment that a test was unlikely, contributing to the continued drop in odds.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists reports Russia's first successful ICBM flight test since 2022

December 31, 2026 dips to 4%4%

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists confirmed Russia's first known successful flight test of a nuclear-capable missile since April 2022, highlighting ongoing nuclear modernization efforts.

Putin hails successful test launch of new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a successful test launch of the nuclear-armed Sarmat ICBM, emphasizing Russia's nuclear modernization but without conducting a nuclear detonation. This demonstration of missile capability was interpreted as a signal of strength rather than a nuclear test, maintaining downward pressure on nuclear test probabilities.

Russia successfully tests nuclear-capable Sarmat ICBM

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia announced a successful test of the nuclear-capable Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, planned for deployment later in 2026. This demonstration of nuclear delivery capability reinforced Russia's nuclear posture but did not constitute a nuclear explosive test, contributing to market declines in nuclear test probability.

Russia successfully test-launches new Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia test-fired the Sarmat ICBM, a nuclear-capable missile hailed by President Putin as the most powerful in the world, with plans to deploy it by the end of 2026. This event increased market attention on Russia's nuclear capabilities but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to a sharp price drop reflecting low probability of an actual nuclear detonation.

Russia successfully tests Sarmat nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia announced a successful test launch of the RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, a nuclear-capable missile described as the most powerful in the world, with deployment planned by the end of 2026. While this was a significant military and nuclear modernization event, it was not a nuclear explosive test, and thus did not fulfill the market's resolution criteria, leading to continued low probabilities for a nuclear test.

Putin says Sarmat ICBM test‑launch was successful, no nuclear detonation

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%4%

Putin announced a successful test‑launch of the new RS‑28 Sarmat ICBM but clarified it was a flight test, not a nuclear detonation. The clarification that the launch was a missile‑system test – not a nuclear explosion – further reduced the perceived probability of an actual nuclear test, reinforcing the market’s downward swing.

Putin announces successful Sarmat ICBM test launch

December 31, 2026 plunges to 8%42%

President Vladimir Putin announced the successful test launch of Russia's new Sarmat strategic nuclear missile, describing it as 'the most powerful in the world' and stating it would enter combat service by year's end.

Putin hails Russia's Sarmat nuclear missile test launch

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%50%

Russia successfully test-fired its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which President Putin described as 'the most powerful missile in the world' and claimed would enter combat service by the end of 2026. This major nuclear weapons development announcement significantly impacted market sentiment.

Russia successfully test-fires new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia conducted a test launch of the nuclear-capable Sarmat ICBM, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, signaling modernization progress but not a nuclear detonation test. This event reinforced expectations of missile development without crossing into nuclear test territory, contributing to a decline in market probability.

Russia successfully tests Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia announced a successful test launch of its new Sarmat ICBM, with President Putin stating it will be deployed by the end of 2026. This demonstration of nuclear-capable missile capability heightened market concerns about potential nuclear activity but did not constitute a nuclear test.

CNN investigation reveals Russian ship likely carrying nuclear submarine reactor components sank

A Russian cargo ship sank in 2024 carrying components for nuclear submarine reactors, raising concerns about nuclear technology transfers but no evidence of nuclear explosive testing by Russia in 2026.

Russia successfully tests new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

June 30, 2026 dips to 2%1%

Russia conducted a successful test launch of the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, which is nuclear-capable and described by Putin as the world's most powerful. This test demonstrated nuclear-capable missile advancement but was not a nuclear detonation test, maintaining downward pressure on nuclear test probability.

Russia test-fires new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%

Russia successfully test-launched the new Sarmat ICBM, touted by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, signaling nuclear modernization but not a nuclear detonation test. This event reinforced Russia's nuclear capabilities without triggering a nuclear test market move.

Putin announces successful Sarmat ICBM test launch

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia's new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, dubbed 'Satan II' by NATO, was successfully test-launched. President Putin stated it would enter combat service by the end of 2026, significantly impacting nuclear capabilities and market sentiment.

Russia claims successful test of nuclear‑capable Sarmat ICBM on May 12

June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%

Russia reported a successful test of the new Sarmat ICBM, describing it as nuclear‑capable. While the test was a launch of a missile, no nuclear explosion was claimed, leading the market to further downgrade the probability of an actual nuclear test.

Putin hails test‑launch of new Sarmat nuclear‑capable ICBM

December 31, 2026 drops to 4%8%

Russia announced and televised a successful test‑launch of the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which is nuclear‑armed. Traders briefly saw this as evidence that a nuclear test might have occurred, lifting the “Yes” price to double‑digit levels before the market corrected for the fact that the launch was a missile test, not a nuclear detonation.

Russia test-launches new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

Russia successfully test-fired the nuclear-armed Sarmat ICBM, a key part of its nuclear modernization program, with plans to deploy it operationally by the end of 2026. This demonstration of capability increased military tensions but was not a nuclear test detonation.

Putin hails Russia's test launch of new ballistic missile

September 30, 2026 rises to 9%1%

President Putin publicly praised the Sarmat missile test as a key step in modernizing Russia's nuclear forces, signaling continued nuclear capability development but not an actual nuclear detonation, which contributed to market uncertainty.

Russia successfully tests new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia test-fired the Sarmat ICBM, hailed by President Putin as the world's most powerful missile, expected to enter combat service by year-end. This demonstrated nuclear capability modernization but was not a nuclear detonation, leading to a market reassessment of test likelihood.

Putin announces Sarmat missile to enter combat duty by end of 2026

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Following the Sarmat test launch, Putin declared the missile would enter combat service by year-end, emphasizing modernization over testing nuclear devices. This official statement further reduced market expectations of a nuclear test occurring soon.

Russian officials tighten security measures amid ongoing tensions

Russia's Federal Protective Service banned officials from wearing watches in meetings with Putin, reflecting heightened security concerns but no indication of nuclear testing.

Analysts note that the expiration of New START removes legal barrier to testing but political costs remain high

Commentary emphasizing that while the treaty’s end technically allows testing, the diplomatic fallout and lack of strategic need keep the probability low, cementing the market’s low price.

Russia uses nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile in massive strike on Ukraine

September 30, 2026 dips to 5%1%

Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, including the use of the nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia’s willingness to deploy nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test was reported, and the strike was conventional in nature, influencing market perceptions downward for a nuclear test occurring soon.

Russia and Ukraine envoys meet in Abu Dhabi for US-brokered peace talks

Diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by the U.S., aimed at ending the nearly four-year war, signaled ongoing efforts to avoid escalation including nuclear testing. The talks coincided with the expiration of the last nuclear arms treaty, reinforcing market expectations against a nuclear test by Russia in the near term.

Russia schedules nuclear-capable ICBM tests over Victory Day parade

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia announced missile tests at the Kura range from May 6 to 10, a site used for nuclear-capable ICBM testing. This was interpreted as a nuclear signaling move timed to deter Ukrainian attacks during the Victory Day parade, increasing market uncertainty about nuclear activity but not indicating an actual nuclear test.

Russia announces nuclear-capable missile tests at Kura range from May 6 to May 10

The Russian Ministry of Defense warned residents about missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka scheduled for May 6-10. These tests involved nuclear-capable systems but did not include a nuclear detonation, which kept market probabilities low for an actual nuclear test.

Russia begins nuclear-capable missile tests at Kura range

Russia closed the Kura test range in Kamchatka for missile tests capable of carrying nuclear payloads from May 6 to May 10, signaling ongoing missile testing but not a nuclear detonation. This contributed to market uncertainty but did not confirm a nuclear test.

Russia warns of missile tests at Kamchatka’s Kura range, May 6‑10

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

Russia announced a series of missile tests at the Kura range (May 6‑10) – rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads – but the Ministry made clear no nuclear devices were being detonated. The announcement reinforced market belief that the activities were conventional test flights, pushing Yes odds further down to single‑digit levels.

U.S. Energy Secretary says any Trump‑ordered tests would be non‑nuclear

Clarification that any U.S. tests would not involve nuclear explosions reduced the perceived trigger for a Russian nuclear test, contributing to the final drop to 4%‑5%.

Russia’s nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles enter active service in Belarus

September 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%

Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, demonstrating enhanced nuclear delivery capabilities. This development raised concerns about nuclear escalation but did not indicate an actual nuclear test, contributing to market uncertainty and price adjustments.

IAEA chief warns a Russian nuclear test would spark a global testing spiral

December 31, 2026 drops to 7%5%

The IAEA chief warned that any nuclear test by Russia would trigger a cascade of follow‑on tests by other states, emphasising that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty remains in force and that no official Russian test had been reported. The warning lowered market expectations that Russia would break the test moratorium, prompting a sharp decline in the “Yes” price for all three dates.

UN nuclear test ban treaty head warns US and Russia against testing

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that if the US or Russia resumed nuclear testing, other nations would follow, emphasizing the high stakes and international pressure against nuclear tests. This likely pressured the market to lower the probability of a Russian nuclear test.

Head of nuclear test ban treaty organization warns US and Russia against testing

The head of the organization overseeing the nuclear test ban treaty warned that if the US, Russia, or any other nation conducts a nuclear test, it would trigger other nations to follow, raising global tensions. This warning likely contributed to cautious market sentiment about imminent Russian nuclear tests.

Russia schedules nuclear‑capable ICBM tests at Kamchatka’s Kura range for early May

June 30, 2026 drops to 2%10%

The Russian Defense Ministry announced that missile tests at the Kura test range in Kamchatka would take place from May 6‑10, framing them as a nuclear‑capable signalling move around Victory Day. The news sparked a sharp drop in market odds as traders interpreted the announcement as a scheduled, non‑explosive test rather than an actual nuclear detonation.

Russia reiterates readiness to keep New START limits for another year

Putin’s reaffirmation that Russia would honor the treaty’s caps for an additional year if the U.S. does so removed a key catalyst for a test, pushing prices toward single‑digit levels.

Russian forces attack substations critical to nuclear safety in Ukraine

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russian military strikes targeted Ukrainian substations vital for nuclear safety, raising concerns about nuclear risks but not constituting a nuclear test. This heightened tensions but did not increase the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test, contributing to market price declines.

Congressional report details Russia's nuclear arsenal and modernization efforts

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

A Congressional Research Service report outlined Russia's large and modernizing nuclear arsenal, including new capabilities and deployments, but noted no nuclear tests. This reinforced the view that Russia was enhancing its arsenal without conducting tests, contributing to a decline in market prices for a nuclear test occurring by year-end.

Russia’s deputy security council head Medvedev warns of “proportional” response to U.S. missile defenses

Medvedev’s warning that Russia would act proportionately if the U.S. pursues new missile defenses was interpreted as a diplomatic threat rather than an imminent test, further lowering market odds.

Congressional report confirms Russian nuclear modernization challenges without new nuclear tests

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

A U.S. Congressional Research Service report highlighted Russia's ongoing nuclear modernization difficulties and multiple failed tests of new systems, with no evidence of new nuclear detonations. This reinforced market expectations of a continued test moratorium, contributing to the sharp decline in test probability prices.

IAEA head warns US and Russia against resuming nuclear tests

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, warned that if the US or Russia resumes nuclear testing, it would trigger other nations to follow, increasing global nuclear risks. This warning contributed to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear tests.

IAEA head warns against nuclear testing by US, Russia, or others

June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%

The International Atomic Energy Agency Director General warned that any nuclear test by the US, Russia, or others would trigger a global cascade of nuclear tests, reinforcing international pressure against nuclear detonations. This diplomatic context contributed to market skepticism about Russia conducting a nuclear test in 2026.

Ukraine drone strike hits Russian oil facility in Tuapse

The attack raised concerns about Russia’s domestic stability and its need to conserve strategic assets, reducing the perceived incentive for a risky nuclear test.

Russia announces missile tests at Kura range with nuclear-capable rockets

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia announced missile tests at the Kura range in Kamchatka, where rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads were test-fired. This demonstrated ongoing nuclear-capable missile activity but did not involve a nuclear detonation, tempering expectations of a nuclear test.

U.S. imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid fragile ceasefire with Iran

December 31, 2026 dips to 8%4%

The U.S. military blockade of Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz raised regional tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, increasing global security concerns but not directly implicating Russia in nuclear testing. This heightened geopolitical risk may have influenced market perceptions of nuclear escalation risks generally.

U.S. President Trump signals intent to resume nuclear testing

Trump’s public remarks about restarting U.S. nuclear tests heightened the risk of reciprocal Russian testing, initially spiking the market before the subsequent diplomatic reassurance pulled prices down further.

Russian diplomat says Moscow will observe New START limits as long as the U.S. does

Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that Russia will stick to the treaty’s caps if the U.S. follows suit reassured markets that Moscow is not seeking to expand its arsenal through testing.

Russian forces intensify missile strikes in Ukraine but no nuclear test reported

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

On April 15–16, Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine in 2026, including ballistic missiles and drones, but there was no credible reporting of nuclear testing. This military escalation did not translate into nuclear test activity, reinforcing market skepticism about a test occurring soon.

Putin orders temporary cease‑fire for Easter, halting combat operations

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

On 10 April 2026 Putin signed a decree ordering a temporary cease‑fire for Orthodox Easter. The move was interpreted as a de‑escalation signal and further reduced market expectations that Russia would conduct a nuclear test in the near term.

Medvedev calls Iran's control over Strait of Hormuz a 'nuclear weapon'

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, claimed Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a 'nuclear weapon' with 'inexhaustible potential,' adding to nuclear tensions in the region.

Russia's Deputy Security Council Chair Calls Strait of Hormuz Closure a 'Nuclear Weapon'

September 30, 2026 rises to 10%1%

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia's Security Council, stated on X that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a 'nuclear weapon' with 'inexhaustible potential,' and that the strait is closed again. This statement contributed to the September 30, 2026 outcome price movement.

Russia’s Deputy Security Council Chair calls Iran’s control of Strait of Hormuz a 'nuclear weapon'

December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%

Dmitry Medvedev equated Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz to a nuclear weapon, emphasizing geopolitical nuclear tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test. This statement contributed to market uncertainty but no test event.

Medvedev calls Hormuz closure a ‘nuclear‑weapon‑like’ test

June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%

Medvedev’s X‑post on 9 April described Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz as a “nuclear weapon” and warned that the closure was a “test.” The heightened nuclear rhetoric briefly lifted market optimism about a Russian test, but the effect was modest and the overall trend remained downward.

Russia claims EU leaders discuss developing nuclear weapons

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) falsely claimed EU leaders were discussing nuclear weapons development, portraying the EU as a nuclear threat to Russia.

Russian official Dmitry Medvedev claims Iran 'tested nuclear weapons' via Strait of Hormuz

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev stated that Iran has 'tested its nuclear weapons' in the form of control over the Strait of Hormuz, a metaphorical claim rather than an actual nuclear detonation. This rhetoric increased geopolitical tensions but did not indicate a Russian nuclear test, contributing to market price declines.

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service claims EU leaders discuss nuclear weapons production capabilities

December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%

On April 8, 2026, the Russian SVR accused EU leaders of planning nuclear weapons production, a claim aimed at sowing discord between the US and EU. This propaganda effort did not indicate any Russian nuclear test plans but reflected ongoing diplomatic tensions, maintaining market skepticism about a test.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev claims Iran has 'tested its nuclear weapons' via Strait of Hormuz

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Dmitry Medvedev stated that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz is effectively a nuclear weapon, calling its closure a test with inexhaustible potential. This statement reflects heightened nuclear rhetoric involving Russia and Iran but does not indicate any Russian nuclear test, influencing market sentiment to lower the probability of a Russian test.

SVR Accuses UK and France of Attempting to Transfer Nuclear Weapon to Ukraine

The SVR made baseless accusations against Western allies, likely intended to disrupt security discussions and portray the West as acting against Russian nuclear interests.

Russia's SVR claims EU leaders discuss nuclear weapons production

The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) falsely claimed EU leaders were discussing nuclear weapons development, part of a broader effort to fracture US-EU relations and portray the EU as acting against US nuclear interests.

Kremlin escalates nuclear rhetoric amid Ukraine conflict but no nuclear test occurs

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

In early April 2026, Russian officials increased nuclear escalation rhetoric to influence Western relations, but no nuclear test was reported. This rhetoric maintained market uncertainty but did not increase test probability, sustaining low prices.

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accuses EU of nuclear weapons development plans

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%

On April 8, the Russian SVR claimed that some EU leaders were discussing developing nuclear weapons capabilities, aiming to fracture US-EU relations. This accusation was part of Russia's broader nuclear rhetoric but did not indicate any nuclear test by Russia itself, contributing to market skepticism about an imminent Russian nuclear test.

Russia sets 2026 deadline for draft design of nuclear rocket engine

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%

On 7 April 2026 Russia announced completion dates for a new nuclear‑rocket‑engine project, a civilian space‑technology programme. The announcement shifted market perception that Moscow’s nuclear activity was focused on peaceful space work rather than a weapons test, prompting the sharp drop in "Yes" probabilities for a nuclear test.

Russian state TV issues chilling nuclear threat to Ukraine but no nuclear test reported

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russian state television threatened nuclear strikes against Ukraine, escalating nuclear rhetoric amid military setbacks. Despite the threats, no nuclear test was reported, contributing to the market's sharp decline in the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the deadlines.

Russia commits to adhering to New START nuclear arms limits despite treaty expiration

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

On April 7, 2026, Russian officials stated that Russia would continue to observe the limits of the expired New START treaty as long as the United States did the same. This commitment reduced market fears of imminent Russian nuclear testing, contributing to a sharp decline in the market price for a test by September 30, 2026.

Russia announces plans to resume nuclear rocket engine research for space missions

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia declared it will present a draft design of a new nuclear rocket engine by the end of 2026, aimed at lunar flights and long-range space missions. This development reflects Russia's focus on nuclear technology for peaceful space exploration rather than nuclear weapons testing, which likely contributed to market reassessment of nuclear test probabilities.

Russian TV warns nuclear strike could wipe Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth

Russian state television aired a chilling warning that nuclear strikes could be used to “wipe Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth,” raising fears of imminent nuclear escalation but not an actual test. The news triggered a further plunge in the market’s expectation of a test.

Russia warns of nuclear escalation in Iran conflict

December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%

Russia's warning that the West Asia conflict could go nuclear heightened global nuclear risk perceptions and reduced confidence in Russia conducting a nuclear test.

Trump declares intent to restart nuclear testing

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Donald Trump announced his intention to restart nuclear testing, prompting concerns about nuclear proliferation and raising fears of nuclear conflict in the Middle East.

Trump reportedly declares intent to restart nuclear testing

Trump reportedly declared his intent to restart nuclear testing, raising nuclear risk perceptions and influencing market sentiment, though not directly related to Russia's actions.

Russia Warns of Nuclear Escalation in West Asia Conflict

Russia's leader Vladimir Putin made nuclear threats, warning that the West Asia conflict could go nuclear, heightening global nuclear risk perceptions.

Trump’s nuclear‑use talk and Putin’s fresh nuclear threats dominate April‑6 nuclear news roundup

A nuclear‑news roundup highlighted that President Trump had revived talk of using tactical nukes, and noted that Putin’s recent nuclear threats added to global tension. The combined coverage reinforced market belief that a formal Russian test was unlikely in the near term.

Russian Navy general killed in military plane crash in Crimea

June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%

On April 6, 2026, a Russian Navy general died in a military transport plane crash near Sevastopol, Crimea. This incident highlighted ongoing military challenges but was unrelated to nuclear testing, reinforcing market views that no nuclear test occurred.

Russian intelligence accuses EU leaders of nuclear weapons ambitions amid disinformation campaign

June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) accused unspecified EU leaders of developing nuclear weapons capabilities, part of Kremlin efforts to fracture US-EU relations and elevate nuclear rhetoric. This disinformation campaign increased nuclear tension discourse but did not signal an actual Russian nuclear test, influencing market skepticism.

Russian leader Putin's nuclear threats and warnings amid Middle East conflict raise concerns but no test occurs

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Russian leader Vladimir Putin frequently issued nuclear threats related to the West Asia conflict, raising global fears of nuclear escalation. However, no nuclear test was conducted by Russia during this period, leading to a decline in market prices reflecting the reduced likelihood of a test.

IAEA provides updates on Iran nuclear facilities after recent strikes

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

The IAEA reported on attacks at two additional Iranian nuclear facilities, continuing the pattern of strikes that have disrupted Iran's nuclear program and raised concerns about nuclear proliferation.

No nuclear test detected amid Russia’s ongoing military operations

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%

Despite intensified Russian missile and drone attacks in Ukraine and military advances, no nuclear test was detected or reported by credible sources during early April 2026, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term Russian nuclear test.

US-Israeli strike near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant kills one, no radiation increase

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

A projectile from a US-Israeli strike landed near Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant, killing one security guard but causing no increase in radiation levels. The International Atomic Energy Agency expressed concern but confirmed no nuclear detonation occurred. This event heightened regional tensions but did not involve Russian nuclear testing.

Russia condemns attacks on Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant amid regional conflict

September 30, 2026 dips to 9%1%

Russia expressed strong condemnation of attacks on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, highlighting concerns over nuclear safety but with no indication of Russia conducting nuclear tests itself, contributing to market skepticism about imminent Russian nuclear testing.

Russia reopens gateway to ISS with nuclear-electric propulsion demonstration

Russia announced a nuclear-electric propulsion demonstration for the Gateway space station, which may have contributed to market speculation about nuclear technology developments.

Russia says its nuclear‑capable Oreshnik missiles have entered service in Belarus

Moscow announced the operational deployment of the Oreshnik hypersonic system, a move seen as a deterrent rather than a prelude to testing, which helped push prices lower.

US NATO war games confirm high probability of Russian nuclear escalation in conflict

December 31, 2026 drops to 46%5%

US NATO exercises in February 2026 concluded that Russia would likely resort to nuclear weapons if facing military defeat, raising fears of nuclear escalation but no actual test occurred. This heightened nuclear rhetoric initially supported market uncertainty but did not translate into a test.

Anti-Aircraft Artillery Strike on Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant Perimeter

December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%

An anti-aircraft artillery strike targeted a defensive position just outside the Bushehr nuclear power plant, raising concerns about nuclear facility security and potential escalation.

Former CIA Director William Burns discusses nuclear concerns about Russia

William Burns, former CIA director, discussed in a podcast that people within the administration were concerned about nuclear use by Russia, reinforcing nuclear risk perceptions.

Strikes near Bushehr nuclear plant raise security concerns but no nuclear test by Russia

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Projectile impacts were identified near the Bushehr nuclear power plant complex, involving Russian personnel, but no nuclear detonation occurred. This incident heightened regional tensions but did not indicate a Russian nuclear test, reinforcing market skepticism.

No damage to Bushehr nuclear plant despite nearby strikes

June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%

Imagery confirmed no damage to the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran despite nearby projectile impacts on April 4, 2026. This event highlighted ongoing regional nuclear tensions but did not involve Russian nuclear testing, maintaining low market probabilities for such a test.

US NATO wargames confirm critical escalation threshold with Russia

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%39%

US NATO Concept Development & Wargaming exercises in February 2026 confirmed a critical threshold of escalation in relations with Russia, underscoring heightened tensions but no nuclear test. This reinforced market doubts about imminent Russian nuclear testing despite conflict escalation.

Former CIA director discusses acute concerns about Russian nuclear use in 2022

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%34%

William Burns highlighted in an April 4 podcast the serious concerns within the US administration about potential Russian nuclear use in 2022, reflecting ongoing fears but no new nuclear test by Russia in 2026.

Russia evacuates 198 staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant amid conflict

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia's state nuclear company Rosatom evacuated 198 staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran due to escalating military strikes near the facility. This evacuation underscored heightened risks but did not involve any nuclear test by Russia, reducing market expectations of imminent Russian nuclear testing.

Russia conducts missile strikes including nuclear-capable missiles but no nuclear test

June 30, 2026 plunges to 3%47%

Russia launched a massive missile strike on Ukraine using nuclear-capable missiles, heightening fears of escalation. Despite the use of nuclear-capable weapons, no nuclear test detonation occurred, leading to further market price declines for the June 30, 2026 outcome.

Ukrainian drones destroy 40% of Russia's Primorsk port storage facilities

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Satellite imagery showed Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed at least 40% of storage facilities at Russia's Primorsk port, disrupting Russian logistics and military supply chains.

Russian military advances and Ukrainian counteractions continue without nuclear escalation

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%

Between March 31 and April 7, 2026, Russian forces made limited advances in Ukraine while Ukrainian forces regained territory. Despite ongoing conflict and casualties, no nuclear tests or detonations by Russia were reported, reducing market expectations for a nuclear test in 2026.

No credible reports of Russian nuclear test amid ongoing Ukraine conflict

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%

Despite ongoing conflict and nuclear rhetoric, no credible reporting emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test by early April 2026. This absence of evidence led to a sharp decline in market prices for all test date outcomes, reflecting diminished expectations of a test.

Russia warns West Asia conflict could go nuclear

Russian leadership issued a nuclear warning about the West Asia conflict, increasing nuclear risk perceptions and contributing to market price declines.

Ukrainian drone strikes severely damage Russian military assets, complicating Russia's military capabilities

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%49%

On April 3, 2026, reports detailed Ukrainian drone strikes destroying significant Russian military infrastructure and personnel, highlighting Russia's ongoing military challenges. This context suggested Russia was focused on conventional warfare rather than nuclear testing, further lowering market expectations for a test.

Russian forces gain territory in Ukraine amid ongoing conflict

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russian military advances in Ukraine during early April 2026 increased geopolitical tensions but did not involve nuclear testing, leading markets to lower the probability of a Russian nuclear test within the year.

Bushehr nuclear power plant hit by missile strike

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

A missile strike hit the anti-aircraft artillery position just outside the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, raising concerns about nuclear facility security and potential escalation.

Ukrainian drone strikes destroy Russian storage facilities

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%41%

Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed at least 40 percent of storage facilities at Russia’s Primorsk port, demonstrating Ukraine's growing nuclear-armed drone capabilities and increasing strategic uncertainty.

U.S. and Russia’s nuclear arms pact expires, raising fears of a new arms race

The New START treaty expired on Feb. 5, and analysts warned that the lack of limits could trigger a competitive buildup, prompting traders to reassess the likelihood of a Russian test.

Russia Claims Germany Could Build Nuclear Bomb in 30 Days

Russia made explosive claims about Germany's nuclear capability, escalating nuclear tensions and contributing to market volatility.

Russia's nuclear threats and claims about European nuclear capabilities

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia made explosive claims suggesting Germany could develop nuclear weapons in 30 days, intensifying nuclear tensions and fueling market speculation about nuclear escalation.

Russia Evacuates Staff from Iranian Bushehr Nuclear Plant Amid US-Israeli Attacks

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia announced it would evacuate approximately 200 staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, which Russia built, as the US and Israel conducted strikes on the facility. This event caused a significant price drop to 2% for the June 30, 2026 outcome.

Russia attacks Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility with heavy tanks and artillery

Russia launched an attack on Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility using heavy tanks and artillery, causing a major fire and significantly increasing nuclear risk perceptions.

Russian military strikes intensify in Ukraine without nuclear escalation

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%

Russian forces launched numerous missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on April 2-3, 2026, but there was no indication of nuclear weapon use or testing. This conventional military activity further reduced market expectations of a Russian nuclear test.

Russia requests ceasefire as it evacuates staff from Bushehr nuclear plant

June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%

Rosatom head Alexei Likhachev announced Russia would ask U.S. and Israel to ensure a ceasefire while evacuating about 200 Russian staff from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where Russia built the reactor.

Russia warns US and Israel to stop attacks on Bushehr nuclear plant

June 30, 2026 plunges to 1%49%

Russia issued a statement strongly condemning attacks on the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, where hundreds of Russian personnel are stationed, raising concerns about radioactive contamination risks.

Russia evacuates staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant amid escalating conflict

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%

Rosatom evacuated hundreds of Russian personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran following US-Israeli strikes near the facility, raising concerns about nuclear safety but no nuclear test by Russia. This event highlighted risks to Russian-linked nuclear facilities but did not indicate any nuclear detonation by Russia, contributing to market price declines on test likelihood.

Iran Claims Three Nuclear Facility Attacks in March 2026

Iran's claim of multiple attacks on its nuclear facilities intensified fears of nuclear proliferation and triggered a nuclear arms race narrative, affecting all market outcomes.

Russian missile and drone strikes intensify in Ukraine, no nuclear test reported

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%40%

Russian forces launched extensive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, but no nuclear detonations were reported or attributed to Russia. This conventional military escalation did not increase the probability of a nuclear test, contributing to further price declines.

Iran's nuclear breakout time measured in days

Iran's nuclear program was reported to have a breakout time measured not in months but in days, indicating rapid advancement. This heightened nuclear risk perception likely influenced the market's price movements across all outcomes.

Russia coordinates evacuation of staff from Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant amid US-Israeli strikes

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Russia announced plans to evacuate about 200 personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, requesting ceasefire adherence from the US and Israel during the evacuation. This highlighted Russia's focus on protecting its nuclear-related personnel abroad rather than conducting nuclear tests, reducing market expectations of a Russian nuclear test.

US and Israel intensify campaign against Iran's nuclear program

The US and Israel launched a coordinated campaign targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Natanz facility, escalating tensions in the region. This heightened nuclear risk perception likely influenced the market's price movements across all outcomes.

Russia Launches Long-Range Missile and Drone Strike Against Ukraine

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia launched 10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 25 Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 542 drones toward Ukraine, escalating the conflict and increasing nuclear risk perceptions.

Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles but no nuclear test reported

December 31, 2026 plunges to 13%37%

Russia announced the active service deployment of nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, increasing nuclear tensions. However, no nuclear test was conducted or reported, contributing to the market's reassessment and price drop for the December 31, 2026 outcome.

Iran claims multiple nuclear facility attacks in March 2026

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Iran reported three attacks on its nuclear facilities in March 2026, further escalating regional nuclear tensions and contributing to market concerns about nuclear instability.

Russia asks US and Israel to enforce cease‑fire as it evacuates staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant

Russia announced it would request a cease‑fire from the United States and Israel while evacuating Rosatom staff from Iran’s Bushehr nuclear plant. The announcement shifted market sentiment away from a Russian nuclear test, pushing the “Yes” probability for a test down sharply across all listed dates.

No credible reports of Russia conducting nuclear test amid heightened tensions

December 31, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Despite military escalations and deployment of nuclear-capable weapons, no credible reports or confirmations emerged of Russia conducting a nuclear test during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a significant market reassessment and price decline for the likelihood of a nuclear test by Russia by the listed dates.

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accuses EU leaders of nuclear weapons development plans

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%

On April 2, 2026, the Russian SVR claimed that some EU leaders were discussing developing nuclear weapons production capabilities, aiming to fracture US-EU relations. This baseless accusation increased nuclear tension rhetoric but did not indicate any imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to market skepticism.

Russia launches massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine including nuclear-capable missile

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

On April 2, 2026, Russia conducted a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, using a nuclear-capable intermediate-range ballistic missile. While this demonstrated Russia's nuclear-capable strike capability, it was not a nuclear test, contributing to market price drops as fears of an actual nuclear test diminished.

Russia warns West Asia conflict could go nuclear

Russian leadership warned that the West Asia conflict could escalate to nuclear use, increasing nuclear risk perceptions and influencing market sentiment.

Russia launches missile and drone strikes against Ukraine

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russian forces launched 10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles, 25 Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-K cruise missiles, and 542 drones toward Ukraine, escalating the conflict and increasing nuclear risk perceptions.

Putin’s withdrawal from CTBT and readiness for nuclear testing noted but no test conducted

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%

Russia officially withdrew from the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 2023 and has indicated readiness to resume nuclear testing. However, as of early April 2026, no nuclear test had been conducted or credibly reported, which led to a sharp market decline in the probability of a test by the end of 2026.

Market reacts to absence of Russian nuclear test despite heightened nuclear rhetoric

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

On April 1, 2026, market prices for the probability of a Russian nuclear test dropped sharply as no test occurred despite increased nuclear escalation rhetoric and accusations. This indicated market consensus that Russia was unlikely to conduct a nuclear test imminently.

No credible reports of Russian nuclear test emerge amid heightened tensions

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Despite increased military activity and deployment of nuclear-capable missiles by Russia, no credible news or official confirmation of a nuclear test by Russia was reported during the analysis window. This absence of evidence led to a sharp decline in market prices for the likelihood of a Russian nuclear test by September 30, 2026.

Russian Security Council deputy chairman warns of nuclear escalation risks in Middle East

December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%

Dmitry Medvedev warned that US actions against Iran could increase the likelihood of nuclear conflict in the Middle East, raising global nuclear tensions but not indicating any Russian nuclear test activity.

US‑Russia nuclear arms treaty expires, fueling test‑run speculation

December 31, 2026 plunges to 8%42%

Reports that the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired on 26 February 2026 raised concerns of an unrestricted arms race, briefly spiking the “Yes” price in early April before subsequent clarifications that Russia remained committed to treaty limits, causing the price to tumble.

Russia deploys nuclear-capable Oreshnik missiles in Belarus amid Ukraine conflict

September 30, 2026 drops to 46%5%

On April 1, 2026, Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system had entered active service in Belarus, signaling a strategic military escalation. This deployment raised concerns about potential nuclear use but did not constitute a nuclear test, leading to initial market uncertainty reflected in prices around this date.

Russian forces launch massive drone strikes on Ukraine amid ongoing conflict

September 30, 2026 plunges to 10%41%

Russian military activity intensified with 700 drones launched against Ukraine on March 31-April 1, 2026, highlighting ongoing conventional conflict rather than nuclear escalation. This military focus without nuclear testing news contributed to market price drops on nuclear test likelihood.

U.S. Space Command highlights Russia's alleged nuclear anti-satellite weapon in wargame

December 31, 2026 plunges to 10%40%

On April 1, 2026, U.S. Space Command discussed Russia's hypothetical use of a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in a wargame exercise, emphasizing the threat but with no indication of an actual nuclear test. This reinforced market skepticism about an imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to price declines.

Former CIA Director discusses nuclear use concerns by Russia

William Burns, former CIA director, discussed in an April 4 podcast that people within the administration were concerned about nuclear use by Russia in late 2022, reinforcing nuclear threat perceptions.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin issues frequent nuclear threats amid West Asia conflict

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

Putin's repeated nuclear threats and Russia's warning that the West Asia conflict could escalate to nuclear levels heightened global tensions but did not translate into an actual nuclear test, leading markets to reassess the likelihood of such an event occurring soon.

EU imposes comprehensive export controls limiting Russia's access to nuclear-related goods

September 30, 2026 plunges to 14%37%

On April 1, 2026, the European Commission confirmed export control restrictions targeting Russian nuclear entities like Rosatom, limiting Russia's access to nuclear technology and materials. This policy action reduced the likelihood of Russia conducting a nuclear test soon due to constrained resources and international pressure.

U.S. and Israel launch strikes on Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant

U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility raised nuclear escalation risks, contributing to market volatility and price drops across all outcomes.

Russian Foreign Intelligence Service accuses EU leaders of nuclear weapons development plans

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%39%

On April 1, 2026, the Russian SVR claimed that EU leaders were discussing developing nuclear weapons capabilities, aiming to fracture US-EU relations and portray the EU as acting against US nuclear interests. This nuclear rhetoric increased market uncertainty but did not indicate an imminent Russian nuclear test, contributing to price declines.

French Air Force General warns Russia may test NATO strength in 2028-2029

General Dominique Tardif, deputy commander of French Air Force, stated that Russia might test NATO's strength between 2028 and 2029, heightening nuclear tensions and influencing market sentiment.

Antony Dabila: Nuclear Deterrence Is No Longer Enough

A prominent article by Project Syndicate argued that nuclear deterrence had failed, contributing to market anxiety about nuclear instability and influencing perceptions of Russia's nuclear posture.

Russia claims Germany could build nuclear bomb in 30 days

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

Russia made explosive claims alleging Germany could develop nuclear weapons capability within 30 days, which was widely reported as a provocative nuclear threat and diplomatic escalation.

No credible reports of Russian nuclear test activity despite military operations

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

During the week ending March 31, 2026, Russian forces were active in Ukraine but there were no credible reports or indications of nuclear testing preparations or detonations. This lack of evidence contributed to the market lowering the probability of a Russian nuclear test by the June, September, and December 2026 deadlines.

Researchers at Tomsk Polytechnic University initiate pilot production of miniature nuclear batteries

On March 31, 2026, Russian researchers announced pilot-scale production of long-life miniature nuclear batteries for medical and technological applications, indicating peaceful nuclear technology development rather than weapons testing. This news did not suggest any nuclear test activity, contributing to market skepticism about a test occurring soon.

No credible reports of Russian nuclear test preparations despite military activity

December 31, 2026 dips to 46%4%

Despite ongoing Russian military operations in Ukraine and increased missile and drone strikes, there were no credible reports or evidence indicating Russia was preparing for or conducting a nuclear test by March 31, 2026. This lack of evidence contributed to the market's initial decline in the probability of a nuclear test by the later dates.

Russia begins pilot-scale production of miniature nuclear batteries

Tomsk Polytechnic University researchers initiated pilot-scale production of betavoltaic nuclear batteries, marking a step in long-duration energy systems. This development may have contributed to increased nuclear-related market sentiment, though it does not constitute a nuclear test.

Russia Announces Nuclear Deterrence Policy Shift Amid Iran Conflict

Russia's abrupt budget U-turn and renewed assault on Donbas were attributed to oil price rises and strategic decisions, increasing nuclear threat rhetoric and market uncertainty.

U.S. and Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities amid Iran crisis

September 30, 2026 plunges to 9%42%

The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, including Bushehr, marking a significant escalation in the Iran nuclear crisis and increasing nuclear tensions in the region.

Russia signs new mutual-defense treaty with North Korea

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Russia rewarded North Korea for supporting its Ukraine war with a new defense pact, including dropping opposition to North Korea's nuclear program and providing missile and submarine support, signaling increased nuclear cooperation.

U.S. intelligence reports Russia modernizing nuclear weapons amid failed tests

The 2026 U.S. intelligence assessment highlighted Russia's nuclear modernization efforts despite multiple failed tests of new systems, indicating challenges but no confirmed nuclear detonations. This background informed market expectations of modernization without nuclear testing.

U.S. and Israel strike Iran's nuclear infrastructure

December 31, 2026 plunges to 12%38%

The U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in February 2026 intensified nuclear tensions, raising fears of a broader nuclear conflict and influencing perceptions of Russia's nuclear posture.

Ukrainian drone strikes kill 34,000 Russian troops in March 2026

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Ukrainian drone attacks killed or wounded 33,988 Russian servicemembers in March 2026, demonstrating significant Ukrainian drone lethality and complicating Russia's battlefield operations.

Ukrainian forces shoot down 89.9% of Russian drones in March 2026

June 30, 2026 plunges to 2%48%

Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 89.9% of Russian missiles and drones launched in March 2026, showcasing Ukraine's growing air defense capabilities and effectiveness against Russian drone campaigns.

Russia-Ukraine War: Russian forces gain Ukrainian territory

Russian forces gained 17 square miles of Ukrainian territory during March 10–April 7, 2026, according to ISW data, escalating the conflict and raising nuclear risk perceptions.